Weekly Stock Market Commentary 8/3/2018

While the $SPX chart remains bullish, in that it is in an upward-sloping channel, there are some troubling signs beginning to appear, including a verified “modified Bollinger Band” sell signal.

The $SPX chart itself has seen support at the 2800 level, or just below, on recent pullbacks.  Below that there is major supoport at 2740.

The equity-only put-call ratios remain split in their outlook.  The weighted ratio gave a buy signal a couple of weeks ago and remains on that buy signal.  The standard ratio, however, is struggling to roll over to a “buy” and has not yet given a confirmed buy signal.

Market breadth has been rather lackluster.  So, both breadth oscillators remain on sell signals.  Again, this has not produced a large market decline, but it is another sign of trouble.

Volatility is much more positive, as far as stocks go.  $VIX has remained below 15, and thus it is a bullish mode.  As long as $VIX is trending lower or sideways, stocks can rally.

In summary, a good number of the indicators remain bullish, and that keeps the intermediate-term outlook bullish.  However, the mBB sell signal and the persistence of lackluster breadth are indications that not all is well.