Weekly Stock Market Commentary 7/12/19

New all-time highs were registered this week by the S&P 500 ($SPX), Dow ($DJX), NASDAQ Composite, and NASDAQ-100 ($NDX; QQQ). However, it is not necessarily a good thing when the large caps are leading the rally, but that’s what’s happening now.

There is support for $SPX above the recent breakout level (which was briefly re-tested) at 2950-2960. Below there, there is a better support level which has been tested a few times, at 2890-2910. A violation of that lower level would be bearish. Otherwise, the $SPX chart remains in an uptrend.

Equity-only put-call ratios remain on buy signals. Both ratios made new relative lows yesterday, so they are still strong buy signals. They will remain so until they roll over and begin to rise.

Market breadth has not been strong, but the breadth oscillators are still on buy signals at this point.

Volatility — both implied and realized — remains docile at this time, and that is bullish for stocks. There really aren’t any worries for stocks as long as $VIX remains below 17.

In summary, the indicators are bullish and thus so are we. While there are some overbought conditions, and there is some lagging in breadth, those things don’t really matter as long as $SPX remains above support.

Weekly Charts

S&P 500 (SPX), CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX), 21-Day Equity Only Put Call Ratio (PC21), and Weighted 21-Day Equity Only Put Call Ratio (PC21 w) charts updated each Friday.

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