Weekly Stock Market Commentary 5/24/2019

The main thing to keep in mind is that $SPX has not broken down below support at 2800. It was tested — more or less — once again yesterday and has held so far. A close below 2800 would be very negative from the viewpoint of the $SPX chart.

Overheard, the major resistance on the $SPX chart is the double top at the all-time highs. More than one bear market has started from a similar pattern.

Equity-only put-call ratios remain strongly on sell signals. They are continuing to rise daily, and they are really not far up their charts yet — meaning there is plenty of room to go before they become “oversold.”

Breadth has been poor of late, and thus both breadth oscillators are once again in agreement, and they are on sell signals.

Volatility, however, is not worried about any of these things. $VIX is at extremely low levels, considering the internal damage that has been done to the market. A sustained move back above 17 would be bearish.

In summary, there are plenty of negative indicators, mixed with a few oversold buy signals. But all that really matters is the 2800 level. The bulls can still resuce this market as long as $SPX does not close below 2800.

Weekly Charts

S&P 500 (SPX), CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX), 21-Day Equity Only Put Call Ratio (PC21), and Weighted 21-Day Equity Only Put Call Ratio (PC21 w) charts updated each Friday.

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