Weekly Stock Market Commentary 3/5/18

The first thing to note is that the $SPX chart is still negative. The chart in Figure 1 clearly has downtrending moving averages and Bollinger Bands. Those are dominating the action right now.

The equity-only put-call ratio charts remain on sell signals. The ratios are racing higher now — especially the weighted ratio. It is at levels last seen in November, 2016, just after the election. As such, it is an oversold state.

Market breadth has been accurate in tracking the market’s moves. The breadth oscillators are technically on sell signals right now, although they are near the center of their historic range.

Volatility has been the hallmark of this market, and the volatility indicators have been good forecasters for the most part. $VIX dropped sharply after the overlapping, successful “spike peak” buy signals in early February. Another such buy signal has been issued as of Friday, Mar 2. In addition, there are “crossover” buy signals. These are short-term in nature.

The intermediate-term interpretation of the $VIX chart is more bearish, though. The 20-day moving average of $VIX is still rising, and there is a modest uptrend in place (blue line in Figure 4).

In summary, the intermediate term outlook remains negative, with short-term rallies occuring with some frequency. A retest of the lows remains a possibility.

Weekly Charts