The Vantagepoint Forex Weekly Outlook is designed to help traders. It’s important to remain aware of correlations in the global markets. Traders can become more profitable if they know how to get ahead of the trends. Utilizing the predictive indicators in VantagePoint Software can help traders find the right trades and the right times. Above all, traders know when to enter and exit those trades for maximum profit. Let’s look at the charts for the U.S. Dollar, Gold, Crude Oil The Stock Market and the Major Pairs.
Hello everyone and welcome back. My name is Greg Firman and this is the Forex Weekly Outlook for the week of July the 22nd, 2019.
Now to get started this week, we’re going to begin where we always do with that very important US dollar index. Now when we’re looking at the dollar index, once again here guys, we need to make the determination if something is trending or if it’s within a range. Right now we can see that based around the medium-term crossing the long-term predicted difference, that’s brought the dollar index down. But at the same time, we can see that the predicted difference is starting to flatten out here. Now we’ve got a big move up, but that’s in Friday trade. However, we’ve only been able to close below that critical vantage point T cross long for one day here. That t cross long now coming in at 9658, significant resistance at 9720, but actually, some fairly strong support still for the dollar and that’s coming in down around this low 9637. so we can see that we’ve come down, kissed that verified support zone and then take a very strong rally off that on Friday. Now our neural index again turning higher, our predicted RSI failing to break down below the 40 level, all of this has sent basically the dollar higher, but more importantly, it’s kept all of the payers in their respective ranges.
Now again, looking at the equity markets here, guys, we talked about this one last week. We’ve got a top formed up here around this 3023 area. Very difficult to believe that the S&P has even managed to get that high. But once again, completely Fed induced here, the Fed talking up the rate cuts. But right now we’re basically hovering along this 2977 area, repeatedly pushing against this critical vantage point level. Most of the indicators here suggest the S&P is going lower.
I’ve been a strong proponent from basically for at least the last 30 to 60 days that this is a sell on the rally. Now, it’s not to say that stocks can’t go higher, but there’s only so much the Fed can do to prop these equity markets up before they inevitably fall. So we’ll continue to keep a close eye on this, but for this coming week, we want to watch this 2977 area very close. But all of the majority of the vantage point indicators are suggesting the S&P is going lower.
The Gold Market
Now, this should continue to fuel a rally in gold. If stocks are moving lower, basically the S&P, a global index is moving lower, then that likely means that money is going to be running into, basically flowing into gold. Now gold is again at a couple of decent retracements here. I’ll point out that this has absolutely nothing to do with Fibonacci. This is a predicted moving average.
The market’s coming down, kissing the predicted moving average, and then we’re rallying off that area. So again, if you’re using some of those tools, very difficult to gauge this using Fibonacci unless you’re going to these broader ranges. So this is just, in my respectful opinion, only a better way to gauge market direction by using these predicted moving averages. Now gold, again as long as we’re holding above this 1420, but more importantly the area that I’m really watching here is down around this low point. I’d like to see us stay above 1400 to keep gold pushing higher.
Now oil coming under pressure simply once again here, guys, unable to break through this verified zone. We’ve created another zone. That high of that zone is coming in at 6102. Not looking great for oil, but once again I’ll warn everybody, for the most part, oil is quite strong in the latter part of July and usually August and September oil holds its value. So I would be watching for a potential reverse along, but it looks like right now we could be heading down into this lower 5182 area where of course we would-be buyers.
Forex Weekly Outlook for Major Pairs
Euro/U.S. Dollar (EUR/USD)
Now as we come into our main Forex payers this week, once again, starting with the euro US, a lot of chatter back and forth, long, short rate hikes. The one thing I’ll point out here, guys, above all else is when we look at this verified zone going across here, we simply can’t break through it. But we’ve got good support down here also around this 11190 basically around the 11191 11185 area. Additional major support down to 111. This area continues to hold, but the indicators are once again starting to turn negative on the euro here. So it’s, one of the determining factors for euro will be gold. If gold continues to advance, the euro is likely to follow.
But what we want to watch here, guys, is this key vantage point level 11256, to see if we can get above this area, stay above it. And also on top of that, we need to break through this verified zone around 11286. so if we can get above that, then we should be able to go back and target up in this 114 area. But again, a very tough nut to crack in here based around a number of different factors. But largely, when we look at these predicted pivot areas, the euro is simply unable to break higher.
U.S. Dollar/Swiss Franc (USD/CHF)
Now, this has fueled to some degree a bit of a recovery in the US-Swiss franc pair. But in my respectful opinion, it’s going to be very difficult for the US-Swiss franc to continue to move higher. We’re getting all tangled up on the long-predicted 9855. if stocks are moving lower, this pair is likely to follow. So we’ll watch this area to begin the week, but very similar to the euro US. If the euro US trade does reverse lower, US-Swiss franc will likely move higher.
British Pound/U.S. Dollar (GBP/USD)
Now as we look into some of our additional major payers here, British pound, US dollar, Once again, this critical vantage point t cross long 12543 but this verified zone slightly above that at 12579 simply unable to get any traction up here, but we’ve got decent support. But again, we keep eking out these lower lows so I would still be very cautious. I support longs down in this a lower 12350 area, but we’ve got to be cautious here guys. Again, we’ve got a very mixed bag here with the vantage point indicators. Predicted differences neural index say we’re going higher. We just simply can’t break through this 12543. But if we get above in my respectful opinion, clear these obstacles and get above 126, this pair is likely to make a pretty decent run back towards at least the 128 area.
U.S. Dollar/Japanese Yen (USD/JPY)
Now with the dollar-yen going into next week, the dollar-yen once again, another frustrating pair. The bulls want to get long on the dollar and short the yen and there’s just very little here to support that. Now we’re starting to recover a little bit with the predicted RSI, the neural index, but we’ve got to break above 10805, but an even bigger problem area here is this 109 area. I would fully support shorts into the 109 area because, in my respectful opinion, the equity markets are on borrowed time here.
Once again, even if the Fed does cut, even if they go as far as to cut a half a basis point, it’s probably a one-off. So a lot of this is buy the rumor, sell the fact. They buy the equities hoping for that Fed announcement. They get it, and then they dump out of it. And usually what happens is we see violent reversals. So any rally up in the S&P is being met with selling. Any rally up in the dollar-yen is being met with the same. So we continue to follow these cycles on these particular payers.
The Commodities Currencies
U.S. Dollar/Canadian Dollar (USD/CAD)
Now with our three main commodity currencies, once again the US cad, we can see absolutely massive support building up down in this lower 13020 area that you can see we’ve been down here for basically six days in a row. So we’ve got the verified support zones controlling the downside. We’ve got the vantage point t cross long controlling the top side. That’s our range rate. Now guys, whether we like it or not. We can throw all kinds of different indicators at this, but at the end of the day, we’ve got buyers coming in at 13020. We’ve got sellers coming in at 131 that’s the play here.
So if we can break above this t cross long at 13107 and we can further break above this resistance zone in this higher area around 13145 guys, that’s the area I would really pay close attention to because if we break through that, then we will have a run potentially back into this 134 area. But my optimism on that right now remains heavily guarded. I believe that gold is likely to rally. Oil is likely to recover. These are positives for the Canadian dollar. So I’m not saying we can’t certainly buy off these verified zones, but there’s obviously clearly a short here also between 131 and 13145.
Australian Dollar/U.S. Dollar (AUD/USD)
Now with Aussie, the US and New Zealand, US they are advancing, but once again, we’ve got to get through these verified zones. That high is coming in at 7068. If we can break through that, then we should be able to move towards the 72 area. But we’re starting to lose a little bit of momentum here, guys, in our momentum-based indicators, the predicted differences, the RSI. The neural index is still positive, but once again, if we break this down to our t cross long to begin the week, this pivot area at 7030, it’s very, very important that we hold above this particular area or in the alternative, this first verified support zone 6996.
If I’m looking for longs, I would prefer to be down around this area while gold is correcting lower or flat and as gold recovers and starts moving back up, the Aussie should follow. Now the same thing would apply to New Zealand. But as New Zealand is clearly the stronger end of these two, but even here we can see a heavily overbought condition. So a corrective move is likely. When we look at a corrective move here guys, we look at 6741. I’m using the predicted moving average by itself and you can see what an extremely powerful pivot area this actually is. I’ve actually, you can buy off this on a daily basis.
New Zealand Dollar/U.S. Dollar (NZD/USD)
So right now I’m looking for the market to move back towards 6741. We need a little bit of a corrective move, guys. They’ve had some big moves, nothing goes straight up, nothing goes straight down. But again, the primary trends do seem to be forming with a stronger gold prices commodity but back currencies are getting stronger. So these are the things we want to watch just prior to going into summer trade in August. So with that said, this is the Forex Weekly Outlook for the week of July, the 22nd 2019.