Vantagepoint Forex Weekly Outlook for the Week of April 29th, 2019
The Vantagepoint Forex Weekly Outlook is designed to help traders. It’s important to remain aware of correlations in the global markets. Traders can become more profitable if they know how to get ahead of the trends. Utilizing the predictive indicators in VantagePoint Software can help traders find the right trades and the right times. Above all, traders know when to enter and exit those trades for maximum profit. Let’s look at the charts for the U.S. Dollar, Gold, Crude Oil The Stock Market and the Major Pairs.
The US Dollar Index
Hello everyone, welcome back. My name is Greg Firman and this the Forex Weekly Outlook for the week of April the 29th, 2019. Now, to get started this week, we’re going to begin where we always do, with that very important U.S. dollar index.
Now, the dollar’s had a pretty good run here but we’re coming into a very heavy week of economic data, with the FOMC, we’ve got the non-farm payroll number on Friday. And as we can see, the dollar is starting to pause at these most recent highs. Those highs are coming in around 9756, but using the vantage point verified resistance zones, we can assess here that we have, actually, significant resistance at or about the 9765 area. Now, once again, when we look at things in the short-term, we see one thing, but when we come out a little bit further, we can assess that we have very, very significant resistance at 9759. Once again, going back and looking at these levels, it can tell us that it’s not a free ride up here. There’s no free lunch, actually, in trading period, but when we look at the dollar, there is significant resistance up here. Now, the dollar’s made a good rally, but, more than likely, what we’re going to do is correct lower ahead of these key economic announcements.
The Gold Market
When we look at some of the counterparts to the dollar, when we look at gold with a little bit of weakness in the dollar, gold immediately responds. We’ve got a good base down here at 1267, but again, if we look a little bit further, we can see that gold is very much within the same range, unless we break down below 1258 or, more importantly, this level down here, around 1219, we’re still in the broader trading range. We buy the bottom, we sell the top, but right now, we’re pretty much smacking dead in the middle of the range. Our key vantage point level, our T-cross long, 1288, we’re looking for a break of that area, but once again, when we look at leading indicator versus lagging indicators, the medium-term crossing the long-term predicted difference, when we’re combining that with the neural index and the predicted RSI, all of that was suggesting gold is going higher this past week, and that’s come to fruition.
However, we now need to clear, make a clean break of 1288, and get above this. But, in the week coming, with the FOMC, we’re expecting a dovish FOMC, we may not get it after that GDP number. The GDP number wasn’t great, it was good, but it wasn’t bad, either. I think that the fed is going to have to start looking at that. We could see different rhetoric coming from them. We want to keep an eye on that, but right now, gold is absolutely catching a bid here.
Forex Weekly Outlook for Major Pairs
With stocks, the million-dollar question that everybody’s asking is, can we take out these swing highs? In most cases, what happens here, guys, when I come back here a little bit further, we’re going to come back to see where that verified zone is, this is at the all-time high, this is up around 2953, we’re still yet to break above that area. In most cases, even when we do set a new high, often the market crashes … shortly thereafter, the market crashes. Once again, vantage point’s been warning that this equity market rally is maybe not as strong as what it looks, we’re kind of moving sideways right now, we’ve had a big move up on a Friday, but again, the earnings have been decent, not great. They’ve been pretty good, but again, nothing goes straight up and nothing goes straight down here, guys. That’s the one thing we want to remember.
And is there any life above 2900, or above 3000? In my respectful opinion, probably not, but again, we’re going to have to see. The equities are still strong for now. As long as the fed remains dovish and on hold, that’s actually helping the equities.
A leading indicator for the equity market, of course, is light sweet crude. Light sweet crude also has put a very strong top in place here at or about the 6660 level. We’re failing miserably off of that, we’re crashing down now below that critical vantage point level, 6377. Looking at oil, if oil is moving lower, chances are, stocks are going to follow very soon. Always keep that in the back of your mind.
Euro/U.S. Dollar (EUR/USD)
As we move into our main Forex pairs, we’ve got an interesting week ahead here. The reason I say that is, most of your currency pairs are still within the overall range here. When we look at Euro-U.S., basically, I’ve been talking about this level for some time now, we’ve broken down below 111, 111-76, but we’ve got additional support down here that a lot of market participants are maybe ignoring to some degree. That level that I’m looking at down here, of course, is this level down around the 111-43 area, we’ve got good support there, but right around the 111-17 is the area that I would really keep my eye out.
You can see right here, I’m just moving over here slowly, about the 111 here is this overall range bottom. The range top is very easy to see here. That’s coming in about 124, so as we move down into the lower part of this range, we are likely going to see some kind of buying step in. This is where we want to watch the vantage point indicators very closely, our medium-term crossing our long-term predicted difference. If we can make that cross with the neural index, the RSI starts rising, we should see at least a corrective move higher on the Euro, back towards the 112-28, prior to the non-farm payroll. The flip side of this coin is, if we get a less dovish fed, and we get a good non-farm payroll number, we should expect the 110 level or lower on Euro-U.S. always keep that in mind, but right now, the vantage point indicators are suggesting that we’re stalling out here, and, if nothing else, we’re going to correct higher in the in-term prior to this major economic data.
U.S. Dollar/Swiss Franc (USD/CHF)
When we look at the U.S.-Swiss Franc, if the Euro-U.S. can push a little higher, U.S.-Swiss Franc, excuse me, should cool off. Now, when we look at this, we’ve got verified resistance. We made a big push up, we’ve retested this level at least three times in this 102-30 area, and we have failed every time.
Our medium-term crossing our long-term predicted difference has been warning us for the last several days that this upward move is not strong. Our neural index is turning down, but very seldom do we see the predicted RSI at 94.1. Heavily overbought. Likely going to see a corrective move back towards somewhere between the 101-73 and the vantage point key reversal point, the 101-11 area. Again, keep an eye on these two areas, we could have a good short trade here for next week.
British Pound/U.S. Dollar (GBP/USD)
Now, with the British pound taking a bit of a hit on rumors on Brexit again, but once again here, guys, always remember, as I’ve stated very clearly in the vantage point live training room and with my own direct clients, make sure you know your levels and your ranges. Right now, the British pound-U.S. dollar is in an identifiable range between 127-73. The top side of that range is about 133-78. As we move down towards 127-70, longs definitely could be in play. Speaking of that, we have a signal on that right now. Our medium-term crossing our long-term predicted difference with our neural index and a rising RSI suggests that we are going to see, potentially, a corrective move back towards the 130s. Watch this area very closely, guys. Again, we could have a decent long trade here regardless of U.S. dollar strength or weakness.
U.S. Dollar/Japanese Yen (USD/JPY)
With the dollar-yen, again, I’ve been watching this and talking about this level around 112-12, basically since back in early March. We still haven’t been able to make a sustained break and close above that level. We had a false break back here on Wednesday, I believe it was, where we shot up to 112-40 near the end of the trading day, only to reverse lower yet again. Now, if you’re an equity trader, you also want to make sure you’re watching this very closely, this bear, because, if dollar-yen crashes, and U.S.-Swiss Franc move lower, those are leading indicators for the SNP-500 and the global stock markets that they’re not strong, that they could be getting ready to move lower. Watch these levels. Right now, the bottom end of this particular immediate range on dollar-yen comes in the or about the 110-84, so it looks like we’re on our way back down to that area as long as we hold below the key vantage point pivot area of 111-71. But the majority of the indicators from vantage point are suggesting dollar-yen is going lower. But again, this will be a very, very choppy week, with the FOMC and the non-farm payroll. You can expect volatility in the dollar-yen pair.
The Commodities Currencies
U.S. Dollar/Canadian Dollar (USD/CAD)
Now, as we move into our three main commodity currencies, U.S.-CAD make a good run up after the Bank of Canada, but as I was talking about in vantage point’s live training room, that often it’s a buy-the-rumors, sell-the-facts. They’re buying thing, they’ve pushed it higher, but it’s done absolutely nothing since. The very next day, after the Bank of Canada, we kissed that same level, and down we’ve come. Ahead of the major event risks this week, we’re likely going to see a corrective move back towards 134. If we hold 134, then we could still see a move back towards major resistance around 136, but again, the medium-term crossing the long-term predicted difference with the neural index and a falling RSI suggests we are going lower, at the very least in a corrective nature. Now, when we look at Aussie-U.S., if U.S.-Canada is going lower, chances are, Aussie-U.S. is going to be going higher. Once again, the advantages of using the verified support and resistance zones is that they draw this line right onto the chart, and you can see that, three days in a row, we’re kissing this level, approximately down at this low, around the 70-10 area, three days in a row, we couldn’t get through it.
Australian Dollar/U.S. Dollar (AUD/USD)
This support level, again, as identified by this powerful new indicator from vantage point, this level has been identified since March the 8th. Essentially, we’ve pushed up, we’ve hit the top of the range, where we were happy sellers, I’ve talked about that area, up here selling into this resistance over the last several weeks, all those trades worked quite well. Now we can potentially look at longs, but we need to hold above the 70 level, guys. If we lose the 70 level, we could have even further trouble, but again, we’ve got significant headwinds up here. 70-82 and 71-04, and of course, major resistance up here at the 71-90 area. Again, the critical part of trading, guys, is not throwing 50 different indicators onto the screen, but knowing your key levels. Combining intermarket analysis with price action. It’s a winning combination, guys. When we look at the Aussie-U.S., right now, in my respectful opinion, it’s a corrective move higher, but Aussie is also responding to higher gold prices. If gold is moving higher, chances are the Aussie and the New Zealand are moving higher.
New Zealand Dollar/U.S. Dollar (NZD/USD)
When we look at the New Zealand, we see the same thing. The New Zealand has put a nice little bottom in down here, a nice little potential double bottom right there. We can see that area’s coming in at 65-81, so longs carry a slight edge here, guys, while above 65-81. We can see, again, our medium-term crossing our long-term predicted difference, but we want it with the neural index. You can see we’ve been red, we’ve recently switched to green. Now the market’s moving higher, we’ve got a rising RSI. These are all moves indicative, again, of a long, not a short. But we must clear some of these critical vantage point levels. The medium T-cross medium, 66-66 in our T-cross long, our critical pivot area. 67-07.
We need to get above that area and close above it. But even if we do, guys, we’ve got additional headwinds with these verified zones, the first one coming in at 60-82, then we have additional resistance that’s going up towards 68-37, and our final resistance at our about the 69-24. Once again, guys, an event risk-heavy week, with the non-farm payroll number and the FOMC. We’ve got a tricky week, but even with those kind of announcements, there is always opportunity if you know your levels. With that said, this is the Forex weekly outlook for the week of April the 29th, 2019.