VantagePoint Forex Weekly Outlook for the Week of April 22nd, 2019

Vantagepoint Forex Weekly Outlook for the Week of April 22nd, 2019

The Vantagepoint Forex Weekly Outlook is designed to help traders.  It’s important to remain aware of correlations in the global markets. Traders can become more profitable if they know how to get ahead of the trends. Let’s look at the charts for the U.S. Dollar, Gold, Crude Oil The Stock Market and the Major Pairs.

Most of these markets are in very tight ranges.  In these instances, traders have to be nimble and take what is offered if you are going to participate.  Lots of potential is ahead of us when the markets break through these tight pre-defined ranges.  Many reports out this week which can provide the spark for larger movement.  New Home Sales, Crude Inventories, Durable Orders, Jobless Claims, Natural Gas Inventories and The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index.

The US Dollar Index

The US Dollar Index is pointing higher and the Vantagepoint indicators have been ahead of the move by a few days.  We anticipate that the dollar should hold its gains going into the end of the month.  We are looking for further dollar strength after some weakness earlier in the week.  Support and Resistance are clearly defined.  As long as we close above 96.78 we think the rally will continue.

The Gold Market

Dollar strength is putting downward pressure on Gold.  The Gold market has fallen into clearly defined long term support.  We are closing slightly below the 1284 area with long term support at 1259.  The overall range is 1259 to 1356.  Longer term traders are trying to buy as close to 1259 and selling as close to 1359.  The indicators are pointing slightly lower on Gold but the indicators are flashing oversold. The predictive moving average crossover DOWN occurred 7 sessions ago.  The NeuralNet indicator is also Bearish.  Gold has been trading basically sideways for the past three months, so we are primarily focused on range trading.   We expect more short term weakness and aggressive traders would look to purchase into long term support.

Forex Weekly Outlook for Major Pairs

S&P 500

When we look at stocks we are in a fundamentally well-defined range.  The all-time high is sitting above the market at 2953 on the S&P.  We still have the potential to move into that area but we have a couple of fundamentals that are very perplexing as of late.  The USD/JPY forex pair mirrors the S&P 500 contract.  Watch this relationship very closely this week for further clues as to the direction of the US equities indexes.

What do the indicators say?

The predictive moving average turned bullish 19 sessions ago and the NeuralNet Indicator Is GREEN indicating strength.  In the last week, this market has struggled.  Technical indicators are showing a mixed bag here as well.

Crude Oil

Massive resistance has formed int eh Crude Oil Markets at $64.71 area.  The market has been incapable of breaking above that area.  The Vantagepoint indicators are warning that Oil is getting ready to turn lower.  Pay attention to this market.  If Oil plummets, USD/CAD is going higher.

The predictive moving is Neutral and has bumped into resistance and the NeuralNet Indicator is Red indicating a great opportunity for Aggressive Sellers to sell strength in the market with stops above the recent highs.

Euro/U.S. Dollar (EUR/USD)

The EUR/USD has been basically trading sideways with a slight downtrend over the last three months.  Very strong resistance on the EUR/USD at 1.1324.  The bias is down with strong support 70 pips below the current price.  No real trend exists as the market trades in a sideways range.  Support at 1.1165.

What do the indicators say?

The predictive moving average turned negative 3 sessions ago. The NeuralNet Indicator Is RED. Strong support is underneath the market.  If you are going to trade short, your stops should be the 1.1324 area

U.S. Dollar/Swiss Franc (USD/CHF)

It looks like the rally in the USD/CHF is beginning to fail.  We have seen a strong rally in thin holiday markets.  Right now this market is running into resistance at 1.0128 and 1.0167..

What do the indicators say?

The predictive RSI is at 94.6% indicating a very overbought situation.  The predictive moving averages are just starting to point down.  The NeuralNet is still green but we feel the second that indicator turns red we will see major selling in this market.

British Pound/U.S. Dollar (GBP/USD)

The GBP/USD is coming into a very significant support zone at 1.2954.  If we break below that area more weakness should ensue.  Next support area at 1.2773,  We anticipate short term strength followed by the slight downward bias to continue.

What do the indicators say?

The predictive moving averages are negative and the Neural Net is also red.  We should have a good clue at the beginning of this week as to how this market is going to behave.

U.S. Dollar/Japanese Yen (USD/JPY)

Very narrow ranges of 25 pips per day show very low volatility in this pair.  We need to see some more volatility and a violation of the trading ranges to see where this goes.  We have our opinions and are waiting for confirmation from the Vantagepoint indicators.  A close below the predictive blue line will be an indicator to short the global equities market.

What do the indicators say?

Currently the Predictive Moving Averages are pointing marginally lower.  But the NeuralNet is bullish and the market is bumping up against significant resistance.

The Commodities Currencies

U.S. Dollar/Canadian Dollar (USD/CAD)

Strong sideways range in this market.  We have been buying off of the 1.3250 area and recognizing the significant resistance at 1.34 and all the way to 1.35.  Be very cautious with this pair.  The predictive indicators in Vantagepoint are all pointing higher.

Australian Dollar/U.S. Dollar (AUD/USD)

Resistance at 7206 and 7295 over the last two months.  A break below 7113 would bode negatively longer term.  We are dangerously close to closing below the predictive blue line.  Should we close below the predictive moving average for two days it would signal a bigger move is coming.  Predictive RSI is neutral with very little momentum.

New Zealand Dollar/U.S. Dollar (NZD/USD)

The NZD/USD has already made a significant move down.  All indicators are negative.  The market is moving into significant support.  If we can hold the 6665 area we expect a rally back to 6754.  Predictive moving averages are negative and Neural net is also red.  Predictive RSI is oversold.