The VantagePoint AI Market Outlook is designed to help traders. It’s important to remain aware of correlations in the global markets. Traders can become more profitable if they know how to get ahead of the trends. Utilizing the predictive indicators in VantagePoint Software can help traders find the right trades and the right times. Above all, traders know when to enter and exit those trades for maximum profit. Let’s look at the charts for the U.S. Dollar, Gold, Crude Oil, The Stock Market, and Major Pairs.
Hello, everyone, and welcome back. My name is Greg Firman and this is the VantagePoint AI Market Outlook for the week of September the 9th, 2019.
The U.S. Dollar
Now, to get started this week, we’re going to begin where we always do with that very important U.S. Dollar Index. Now, what we’re looking at with the Dollar Index this week is yet another failure above this major resistance slightly above this 98.50 high. We’ve extended to 98.90, only to turn around and move lower but we are holding and closing above the TCrossLong at 97.85. So to begin our week, we want to watch the 97.85 area very closely. But we can assess here that our medium-term trend is weakening against our longer-term trend. The Neural Index is somewhat conflicted but still pointing lower. Now, our predicted RSI, again to gauge that momentum, we’re at 47.6 so there’s very little momentum for buying U.S. dollars at this particular time. So, when we’re looking at this, again, we want to identify our support low at 96.40. It would appear, at least for now, if we can break through this critical VantagePoint level, we will extend lower.
The Gold Market
Now, at the same time, gold is correcting lower also but a little more aggressively. We’ve broken down below the TCrossLong at 1524 but this was based around the payroll number on Friday. Now in most cases, after the non-farm payroll from the U.S., which wasn’t that great of a number, it was just okay, gold should recover next week. We want to watch these support zones down here but our major verified support is coming down to 1488. We want to make sure that we’re holding above that level or we could see a much deeper correction. Now, with the S&P 500, the S&P 500 is broken higher but basically, for all of the wrong reasons.
Now, news of the trade war, the two sides are coming back to the table. But again, I’ll point out here guys, nothing has been resolved and it’s very unlikely that anything will get resolved. So, we’re staying well within the overall trading range. We’ve got a high up here towards the 30, 29 area, in our low point over the last, at least the last month, is sitting down at 2776. So it would certainly look at when we look at this chart, a premium short appears to be setting up. We’re just waiting for the VantagePoint indicators to confirm that, but shorting towards anywhere but towards this 30, 29 area, a very reasonable play.
Now, when we look at oil, oil contracts, again, not supporting this rally up in equity markets, oil breaking down lower, more likely than not, stocks are going to follow this move. Now, nothing is 100% but we can see that we’re breaking down below 55.33. We just don’t have any buyers in oil whatsoever. We’re remaining firmly within this range, this current range sitting at 50.50 on the downside and we’ve got about 58.71 on the top side. If the stocks come under further pressure, then we’ll see oil move lower.
Forex Weekly Outlook for Major Pairs
Euro/U.S. Dollar (EUR/USD)
Also, it would certainly appear that light sweet crude oil contracts are currently a leading, not a lagging indicator for the stock markets. But again, we still need to keep an eye on pairs like Euro / U.S. now. Euro / U.S. has recovered off the lows, but we can assess that it’s all tangled up in the TCrossLong at 1.1062, the market unable to break above this current level. Now again, I will point out that 80% of the time, after the non-farm payroll announcement, the Euro has moved higher, not lower, regardless of how good that number is. When we look at our indicators from VantagePoint, our medium-term crossing our long-term predicted difference with the Neural Index but our RSI is lacking momentum. We’re at 49.5 but again, if we continue to see sellers in the dollar, the Euro will advance, but we must breakthrough 1.1062.
U.S. Dollar/Swiss Franc (USD/CHF)
Now, U.S. / Swiss Franc is recovering also but it’s only recovering based around the equity markets. And as you can see, as we move into these verified resistance zones, we’re starting to fail yet again, which is surprising considering the interest rate differential between the dollar and the Swiss Franc heavily favors the U.S. dollar and we still have no buyers of this particular pair. Right now, we can further assess the medium-term crossing the long-term predicted difference to the downside with the Neural Index suggesting this pair is going lower, which indirectly supports our shorts on the S&P 500.
U.S. Dollar/Japanese Yen (USD/JPY)
Now, as we move towards our more volatile parasite, the British Pound / U.S. dollar, we want to be very careful with this. Once again, it appears to be a false break above our first verified high at 1.2308. You can see that we only managed to close one day above that level after the Brexit announcement but we immediately slipped below that level again. Now, our critical support 1.2209, we want to see if we can hold this level. If we can hold this level based around dollar weakness, then it should extend higher. We can see firmly that medium-term crossing the long-predicted difference is in full support of this particular move, but again, always a wild card as long as the Brexit is in place.
British Pound/U.S. Dollar (GBP/USD)
Now, as we move towards our Dollar / Yen pair, a very similar scenario where we’re unable to take out this major resistance level at the one 106.97 area. We’ve poked above it a few times but as you can see by the bars, we have not been able to close above this particular level. So we’re going to continue to monitor this. But once again, this warns of a move lower in stocks, not higher. So, watch out for this pair on Monday for a fake move higher, only to turn around and reverse on Tuesday.
The Commodities Currencies
U.S. Dollar/Canadian Dollar (USD/CAD)
Now, with the U.S. / Canadian pair, we’ve had a good move down here. The medium-term crossing the long-term predicted difference, how we measure two trends against each other with the VantagePoint software, deadly accurate yet again is it calls the breakdown before it happens and we further extended this rally. My concern is that we have verified support on this particular pair that starts at the 1.3177 area and goes all the way down into the 1.3105 where we could see buyers come back in. And this further support level, even bigger coming in around 1.3050.
Australian Dollar/U.S. Dollar (AUD/USD)
Now, as we look at our other two main commodity currencies, Aussie and New Zealand, they are recovering. But I’ll point out here, guys, that if stocks reverse, it is more likely than not the Aussie dollar and the New Zealand and the Canadian dollar will all move lower. So we want to be watching these indicators very closely. But right now, the predicted RSI already in heavily overbought territory, and we’re dangerously close to this upper end of this verified zone at 0.6821. Now, we’ve closed the week, which is beneficial at 0.6844 but be very, very cautious of a false break higher here, guys.
New Zealand Dollar/U.S. Dollar (NZD/USD)
If you’re trading this pair, keep a very close eye on the S&P 500. If it starts to sell off, the Aussie is likely to follow. The same thing would apply to New Zealand / U.S. We need to watch this very, very closely. Again, this could be, I’m not saying it is, but it could be a false break. We’re going to watch our medium-term and long-term predicted difference for them to start turning down. If they start turning down, that will confirm that the equity markets will be moving lower.
So with that said, this is the VantagePoint AI Market Outlook for the week of September the 9th, 2019.