UK inflation could hit five-year high, as German growth surges – business live

Over in the City, ITV has reported that TV ad revenue fell 7% in the first nine months of the year.

The broadcaster expects improvement with a fall of 5% for the full year, as brands roll out big budget festive campaigns in the run up to Christmas.

October will be down 1%, November up 2% and December up 1%. Peter Bazalgette, ITV chairman, said “some” grocers and consumer brands (like P&G and Unilever) are returning to TV advertising but the economy is still very uncertain.

In another boost, Germany’s growth rate in the first three months of 2017 has been revised up to 0.9%.


German real GDP expanded by 0.8% q-o-q in Q3, beating expectations (0.6%). This comes after GDP growth of 0.6% in Q2 and an upwardly-revised 0.9% in Q1.In Q3, positive contribution came from foreign trade and investment.Carry-over effect for 2017: 2.4%

Today’s growth figures show that Germany remains “the high-flyer of the Eurozone”, say Carsten Brzeski of ING.

He’s impressed that German GDP grew by 0.8% in the last quarter, writing:

Never tired of good news? Then have a look at the latest German GDP data. The economy continues its golden cycle and staged yet another strong growth performance in the third quarter…..

Growth was driven by public consumption, investment and net exports. Only the construction sector took a longer vacation break. Even if the economy would stagnate in the final quarter of the year, GDP growth for the entire year would still come in at 2.4%; the highest reading since 2011.


Germany: Still flying high – The golden cycle of the German economy continues, with 3Q GDP growth coming in at 0.8% QoQ.

Boom! Germany’s economy has beaten expectations by growing twice as fast as the UK in the last quarter.

German GDP expanded by 0.8% in July to September quarter, thanks to strong trade and investment figures. That beats expectations for 0.6% growth, and means Europe’s largest economy is having a very impressive year.

As Destatis, the German statistics office, puts it:

Exporters put in another strong performance, meaning Germany shipped more to the rest of the world than it bought in.

Destatis says:

Investment in new machinery and equipment also rose, while government and consumer spending “remained rather stable”.


Strong Q3 performance means Germany is having its best growth year since 2010, running further above potential. My take:

Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business.

Britain’s cost of living squeeze may hit a new five-year high today, as the weak pound continues to drive up prices in the shops.

October’s consumer prices index is expected to hit 3.1%, up from September’s 3% and the highest level since March 2012.

Economists say that rising food and energy prices will push inflation up. Sterling’s weakness – still down over 10% since the EU referendum in June 2016 – is another factor.

This would bring more pain for households, as wage increases are running at just over 2%. It would also force Bank of England governor Mark Carney to write a letter of explanation to the UK chancellor, explaining why he’s failed to keep inflation close to the BoE’s 2% target.

New growth figures are expected to confirm that the eurozone economy grew by a punchy 0.6% in the third quarter of 2017. We also get individual figures from Germany, the Netherlands and Italy.

The world’s four top central bankers are appearing at a European Central Bank conference in Frankfurt. Mark Carney will join Janet Yellen of the Federal Reserve, ECB chief Mario Draghi and Haruhiko Kuroda of the Bank of Japan will all discuss “Communications challenges for policy effectiveness, accountability and reputation”.

7am GMT: German GDP for the third quarter of 2017

8.30am GMT: Dutch GDP figures for the third quarter of 2017

9am GMT: Italian GDP for the third quarter of 2017

9.30am GMT: UK inflation figures for October

9.30am GMT: UK house price figures for September.

10am GMT: Eurozone GDP growth figures for the third quarter of 2017

10am GMT: Mark Carney, Janet Yellen, Mario Draghi and Haruhiko Kuroda speak at an event on central bank communication

10am GMT: UK Treasury committee hearing on Household finances: income, saving and debt

1.30pm GMT: US producer prices figures