Too Much News For The Next Three Weeks

Busy, busy, busy.

Here’s what we know to be on tap for the rest of October as of today October 7.

U.S.-China trade talks are set to resume on Thursday, October 10. That means a switch from a period when both nations were issuing statements and policy steps intended to set the initial conditions when the talks resume to a period when leaks from the talks attempt to massage expectations about progress–lack thereof in the talks.

Third quarter earnings season begins next week with Citigroup (C), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), JPMorgan Chase (JPM), and Wells Fargo (WFC) scheduled to report on Tuesday, October 15.

October 19 marks the beginning of the Federal Reserve’s quiet period ahead of the October 30 meeting of its interest-rate-setting Open Market Committee. Right now the financial markets are giving about 80% odds of an interest rate cut at the October 30 meeting. If the Fed thinks the market has gotten ahead of itself on rate cut expectations, it has only until October 19 to talk investors and traders out of their error.

On October 30 we’ll know if the markets have it right or wrong on a 25 basis point cut in interest rates.

October 30 is also scheduled for the release of the advanced estimate on third quarter GDP. The final estimate for second quarter GDP showed growth at 2% year over year. The  financial markets have spent the last week worried that the third quarter will come in weaker than that, say, at 1.7% or so. But since the data has been all over the place in the last week–with the Purchasing Managers Index showing increased softness but the jobs report showing decent strength–it’s fair to say Nobody knows where growth will actually come in.

And then on October 31, we all get to say BOO! for Halloween and then turn the page to November.