The Tick and Trin Reach Bullish Levels; Short Term Bounce is Possible

SPX Monitoring purposes: Long SPX on 12-6-17 at 2629.27.
Monitoring purposes GOLD: Short GDX on 11/13/17 at 22.56
Long Term Trend monitor purposes: Neutral.

The tick and trin did reach bullish levels suggests a short term bounce is possible (see page two). The chart above is the 10 day average of the Equity Put/Call ratio and reading near .58 and lower have appeared near short term highs. Therefore, if there is a bounce, it may not last for long. There was a time back in June 2015 the market bounced a short while (noted on chart) before heading lower again and may be what is setting up here.

Short term bounce is possible. The TRIN closed >1.30 and ticks closed < -250 two days in a row suggesting a short term bounce is possible in the next several days. We have identified with blue arrows the times in the last several months when the tick and trin met these parameters. Not sure how high the market may move but should at least test the recent highs. Long SPX on 12-6-17 at 2629.27

The COT Commercials bumped their short position again last week to 247K up from 225K the week before and remain bearish. On a previous report we pointed out that the Bollinger Bands where “pinching” on GDX and GDX/GLD ratio suggesting a large move is about to begin in both. The “Pinching” of the Bollinger Bands does not give the direction of the move, we have to look at other studies to determine that. The direction of the move comes from the Up down Volume and Advance/Decline indicators (second and third windows up from the bottom). Both of these indicators fell below “0” suggesting the large move will be down. Near the next low in GDX we should see a divergence show up in the GDX/GLD ratio and so far there is none suggesting the move down has further to go. On yesterday’s report we pointed out there is strong support near 21.00 on GDX. For now the picture remains bearish for GDX. Short GDX on 11/13/17 at 22.56.

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