The Path Lower For Bonds

It caused an uproar when the US Treasury 10 Year Note yield touched 3% a few weeks ago. Everyone knew exactly what would happen (as they always do). Stocks would crater because now you could get a 3% risk free return from Treasuries compared to a risky 3% dividend yield from stocks. Personally I thought this was the most asinine comment out there.

First people do not buy stocks to make a 3% return every year. Go ahead and tell me all about your parents or grandparents with their dividend heavy portfolios. Do they actually have their portfolios focused on dividends. Look at them. Or do they own more dividend paying stocks than you do, but also own the leaders?

The other side of the argument might be worse though. How do you argue that Treasuries, 10 Year Notes and longer, are about to undergo a secular decline in price and then go on to say that investors will be buying them in troves with the yield at only 3%? Combine these two examples and you have the reason the turn off the news and just follow price action.

We all know now that 3% did not kill stocks. In fact small caps are now back at record highs. And 3% did not attract Treasury buyers. In fact the picture does look to continue to get worse for Treasuries. With one day left in the week, the chart above is building a strong bearish candle, and has made a lower low. In fact the lowest intra-week price since July 2015.

Momentum is building to the downside with the RSI in bearish territory and falling and the MACD negative and crossing down. The Measured Move off of the latest rejection at the 20 week SMA gives a downward target to about 110 on this leg. That would take prices back to March 2014 levels. It would also trigger a 4 year long Head and Shoulders top with a price objective to at least 86 on the Bond ETF. That price level has not been seen since early 2007.

The information in this blog post represents my own opinions and does not contain a recommendation for any particular security or investment. I or my affiliates may hold positions or other interests in securities mentioned in the Blog, please see my Disclaimer page for my full disclaimer.