The Odds Of A Fed Rate Cut Next Week Are Falling, Uh-Oh!

Stocks had a blah day with basically nothing happening. It was a good week, so let’s not lose sight of that. But next week will be a massive week with the Fed meeting. But the odds of the Fed cutting rates is suddenly becoming less certain.

MACRO

Fed Futures

Fed Funds futures are currently trading at 1.875%, which fall pretty much in the middle of the 1.75 and 2% range. That rate has been on the rise since the beginning of September. Additionally, the CME Group now projects just an 80% chance of a 25 bps rate cut next week.  That is down from a 90% chance last week.

rate cut

rate cut

So we can wait and see what develops next week. I’d be surprised if the Fed doesn’t cut rates.

S&P 500 (SPY)

It looks like there is a bullish pennant pattern that is forming on the intraday of the S&P 500.  I think it is positive for the start of next week.

S&P 500, spx

S&P 500, spx

STOCKS

Freeport (FCX)

Freeport finally reached my target today of 11.00, and with that, we can check that one-off. I’m not sure what happens next. I will have to keep an eye on things.

freeport, fcx

freeport, fcx

Apple (AAPLWealth Strength IndexAAPL is Extremely Up and trending Up)

Apple bounced off support today where it was supposed to at $217.40. The trend is still higher.

apple, aapl

apple, aapl

Square (SQ)

Square bounced some today, but the trend is still lower.

square, sq

square, sq

That is all for today.

-Mike

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