The All New Market Analysis – September 5th, 2018

SPX Monitoring purposes; Long SPX on 8/31/18 at 2901.52.

Monitoring purposes GOLD: Long GDX at 18.72 on 8/17/18

Long Term Trend SPX monitor purposes; Sold long term SPX 7/16/18 at 2798.43= gain 2.95%; Long 6/29/18 at 2718.37.

We research a lot of different ratios, some provide good information and others, not so much.  The middle window above is the four period moving average of the Tick/Vix raito.  When this ratio is above +18 the market has been near a short term high and below -10 the market has been near a short term low.  Today’s close came at -12.21.  Also the Dow Jones has been up four days in a row going into last Wednesday, it will be higher at least once within the next five days 82% of the time, today marks day three so by Thursday it should be higher, we will see.

This chart was updated about 1 ½ hour before the close.  The “3 MA of the TRIN” and “3 MA of the Tick/Trin ratio” remain near bullish levels and it doesn’t appear a significant pull back is in the making.  The second window down from the top is the “3 day average of the trin”. Reading near 1.50 and above appear near short term lows and the current reading is 1.40.  Next window down is the “3 day average of the Tick/Trin ratio”.  When the ratio reaches below -150 (reached -201.39 last Thursday) the market is usually near a low.  When both indicators are near or in bullish levels than the degree of success increases and that is what we have here.  It appears with today’s indicator readings suggest support can be found near the January high at the 2870 range.  We are back long SPX on 8/31/18 at 2901.52.

The weekly Inflation/Deflation ratio (updated to last Friday’s close) produced a weekly RSI less than 30 (closed 28.32) and the weekly Slow Stochastic less than 20 (closed 7.67) along with this ratio closing below it lower Bollinger band which suggests the market has hit capitulation.  The COT commercials for Gold with a short position of only -1685 hit on August 21 suggest gold at a major low.  The last time Gold Commercials where this low (-2915) came on November 30, 2015 which was a major low.   Long GDX at 18.72 on 8/17/18.