The All New Market Analysis – May 30th, 2018

SPX Monitoring purposes; Sold long SPX on 5/29/18 at 2689.86 = loss 1.58%; long 5/21/18 at 2733.01,
Monitoring purposes GOLD: neutral
Long Term Trend SPX monitor purposes: Long SPX 3/14/18 at 2749.48.

The top window is the McClellan Oscillator which closed at -30 and below “0” and bearish.  The second window up from the bottom is the 4 day average of the NYSE advancing issues and 4 day average of the NYSE declining issues and works well for a momentum chart for the market.  When the 4 day average of the Advancing issues stays above 1400 the market is an uptrend trend and when below a downtrend. Today it closed at 1386 and in bearish levels.  Sold long SPX today for a 1.58% loss and on the sidelines for now.

Above is the VIX along with the SPY below it.   The last three times the VIX closed above its upper Bollinger band the SPY was lower the next day.  We also have showed on this chart the times when the Volume jumped 30% or more from the previous days trading.   Of the times volume increased 30% from the previous days trading going back to February, the market was at a low.  We did get panic in the TRIN today with a close of 1.95 but did not get panic in the Tick which closed at +74.  A Bullish setup could occur if the TICK closes near -300 or lower tomorrow.  Tomorrows trading will help sort through what to expect next in the markets. Back on the sidelines for now.

The current reading for the Gold COT Commercials is at 116K short, down from last week at 118K.  The last low in Gold in December 2017, the COT Commercial short was 119.5K and therefore the current commercials short levels are in a bullish levels. Above is the monthly GDX chart with its Bollinger bands.  Over the last several months the monthly Bollinger bands have been pinching on GDX as well as the GDX/GLD ratio, suggests a large move is coming.  The Top window is the monthly RSI for GDX; a close above 50 would indication that the GDX rally is starting (current reading is 49.30).  The bottom window is the monthly Slow Stochastics for GDX; a close above its moving average will suggests the GDX rally is starting (which hasn’t happen yet).  The stage is set for the bull market in GDX to begin and to start this bull move, momentum needs to turn from neutral to positive. Being patience for now.