The All New Market Analysis – June 27th, 2018

SPX Monitoring purposes; Neutral
Monitoring purposes GOLD: neutral

Long Term Trend SPX monitor purposes: Neutral

The bottom window is the NYSE Advance/NYSE Decline issues with a 4 period moving average which remains below 1.25 and bearish for now. Next window up is the NYSE Advancing issues with 4 day average (blue) and NYSE declining issues with 4 day average (red). When the blue line is on top than an uptrend is in progress; when red line is on top than decline is in progress and today’s market action produced a red line on top and bearish for now. Seasonality turns bullish tomorrow ran runs to Friday but we don’t have panic in the TRIN and TICK readings suggesting a low is forming here. Market could bounce to Monday’s gap level and find resistance and turn back down. Staying neutral for now.

A reliable sign for a bottom is when the 3 MA of the TRIN reaches above 1.50; the current reading is 1.09 and not a reliable reading for bottoms to form. A bottom is probably near as there are bullish signs. The VIX hit its upper Bollinger band yesterday (bullish) along with Volume that nearly doubled from the previous days suggesting a “Selling Climax”.  Seasonality turns bullish tomorrow and runs into Friday. If market does bounce, it doesn’t have the power to go far (the stronger the panic the stronger the rally and this decline did not produce much panic) but could get to Monday’s gap level. If gap is tested on lighter volume would imply resistance and market could turn back down. Unless Trin reaches panic levels we most likely will stay on the sidelines.

We have been reporting about the longer term picture for gold stocks giving bullish signals. Above is the weekly Gold Miners index going back to 2006. The top window is the weekly Bullish Percent index for the Gold Miners index with a 10 period moving average. The Bullish Percent index measures the percent of stocks in the Gold Miners index that are on point and figure buy signals. The 10 period moving average of the bullish percent index above 40% have marked longer term lows in the Gold miner’s index and that level was reached back in April and remains above 40% closing at 48.21%. This weekly indicator remains on a buy signal. Once the daily Cumulative A/D and Up Down Volume indicators turn bullish (See yesterday’s report), then bottom may be in. There are cycle lows due starting June 25 and run into July 4. Being patiet for now.