The All New Market Analysis – June 19th, 2019

SPX Monitoring purposes; Sold long SPX 6/7/19 at 2873.33= gain 4.41%; long 5/31/19 & 2752.06.
Monitoring purposes GOLD: Long GDX on 1/29/19 at 21.96.
Long Term Trend SPX monitor purposes; Sold long SPX on 5/6/19 at 2932.61= gain 5.96%:

Today’s volume jumped near 50% compared to the previous several days and suggests short term exhaustion and a bearish sign.  SPY gapped up and with today’s short term volume exhaustion, a short term pull back is possible to test open gap.  If market does pull back and gap is tested on lighter volume (most likely test will be on lighter volume) and tick and trin reach near panic levels, could produce a bullish setup.

FOMC meeting started today and ends tomorrow.  All indicators don’t work all time; have said that, the tick has worked well short term this time around.  The bottom window is the 5 minute cumulative tick; it rises and falls with the market. It turned up yesterday and still in an uptrend and remains short term bullish.  The top window is the 100 period 5 minute chart of the tick. Readings above “0” are bullish and today’s close came in at +30.16.  Tomorrow is the final day of the FOMC meeting producing uncertainty in market direction.  Volume did expand nearly 50% from the previous days which usually leads to short term exhaustion and a short term bearish sign. Don’t have a good setup here but market could test today’s gap up opening.  Staying neutral for now. Sold long SPX 6/7/19 at 2873.33= gain 4.41%; long 5/31/19 & 2752.06.

Above is the monthly Gold market going back to late 2006.  On the left side of the chart above is the “price by Volume” indicator which shows what prices has the most volume (going back to late 2006) which in the case for GLD is from 120 to 130 levels.  Once above the 130 level, GLD should find support near 130 (current close is 127.09).   Gld appears to be drawing a Head and Shoulders bottom pattern. This potential Head and Shoulders pattern has the Neckline around the 130 which is where the top of the “Price by Volume” levels lies.  For a confirmed break of this area a “Sign of Strength” (SOS) is needed which may come sooner rather then later.  I might add there could be a “False Whipsaw” to get weak hands to fold before this strong move up gets underway.  We have red boxes put where GLD was up four months in a row which happens in up-trends.  The most recent four months up came from October 2018 to January 2018 giving support for an uptrend in GLD.   The top window is the monthly RSI for GLD.  A market is considered in an uptrend when RSI is above 50.  The current timeframe on this chart is the monthlies and the RSI is above 50 suggesting a longer term move is in progress.  GLD is setting at a price (130 neckline and Price by Volume level) where volatility should increase (where whipsaw first before SOS or just SOS).  Look for price volatility to increase in the coming weeks. In bull market Gold stocks outperform gold and therefore GDX should outperform gold. Long GDX on 1/29/19 at 21.97.