The All New Market Analysis – July 17th, 2019

SPX Monitoring purposes; Sold SPX 7/5/19 & 2990.41= Gain of 2.50%;  Long SPX 6/25/19 at 2917.38.

Monitoring purposes GOLD: Long GDX on 1/29/19 at 21.96.

Long Term Trend SPX monitor purposes; Sold SPX 7/5/19 & 2990.41= gain 2.63%; Long SPX on 6-26-19 at 2913.78.

Above is the VIX which trades opposite of the SPY.  The second window up from the bottom is the SPY/VIX ratio. Its bullish for the market when this ratio is rising and bearish when declining.  This ratio turned down yesterday and continues down today and a bearish sign.  However we don’t expect the market to decline much more.  Yesterday we said, “Today markets 5 days up in a row, market higher within 5 days 93% of the time with an average gain of .93% (@usarlewitz).  Therefore if there is a pull back and panic is recorded, a bullish setup could form.  This is option expiration week which has a bullish bias.”  Today panic was recorded in the TRIN with a close of 1.57; if ticks close below -100 tomorrow a bullish setup could develop.

The bottom window is the cumulative tick.  Its bullish when rising and bearish when declining.  Today it fell through its moving average and a bearish sign.  Top window is the 100 period moving average of the 5 minute tick. Readings above “0” are bullish and below bearish.  Today the tick fell below “0” and a short term bearish development.  The TRIN closed today at 1.57 and yesterday at 1.34 which adds up to 2.91.  Two day trin that add up to 3.00 or better can produce bounces in the market.  A reading of 2.91 is very near the bullish level.  (Sold SPX 7/5/19 & 2990.41= Gain of 2.50%; Long SPX on 6/25/19 at 2917.38.

Above is the weekly GDX chart going back to late 2015.  A trading developed in 2017 that bounced around in the 21.00 to 25.00 range.  GDX fell below 21.00 (the bottom of that trading range) in 2018 and then closed above it in early 2019 creating a “Bullish Shakeout”.   GDX trading back to support near 21.00 in May and from there closed above the top of the trading range near 25.00.  Now the 25.00 range should act as support.  Going forward from here the market may attack the next upside resistance which is the 2016 high near 31.00 and for now our upside target. Long GDX on 1/29/19 at 21.97.