The All New Market Analysis – January 23rd, 2019

SPX Monitoring purposes; Neutral.

Monitoring purposes GOLD: sold 11/27/18 at 18.88=gain .075%; Long GDX at 18.72 on 8/17/18

Long Term Trend SPX monitor purposes;  Long SPX on 10-19-18 at 2767.78

There is a confluence of Fibonacci levels of 50% and 61.8% retracement level at 2640 SPX range and which is where the November and December lows lie along with the 50 day moving average (not shown) and all are resistance zones.  It appears an Elliott Wave five count up appears to have completed on Friday and an “ABC” correction could be in the making.  The Tick closed at -122 and trin at 1.62 and off tops this reading can be a bearish short term sign which can lead to another day or two decline but not usually a big decline.  The second window up form the bottom is the Cumulative Tick with a 75 period moving average.  The Cumulative tick has moved down modestly showing that momentum is weakening short term.  If ticks don’t explode negatively in the coming days, it could lead to a bullish setup.

The middle on the chart above is the NYSE McClellan Oscillator/VIX ratio. When this ratio reaches above +15 (going back 7 years) the market continued its rally in the coming weeks. In 2013 (circled in red) there was a brief consolidation that last a couple of weeks; the other times market marched higher each time (other than a couple day consolidation). As reported on last Thursday’s update quoted by  “For the 10th day in a row, the S&P 500 $SPX has closed higher than the daily OPEN. This has happened 10 other times from 1962 – present, 9 of those 10 times saw the S&P higher 1 week later average gain of .29%.”  Though market higher 90% of the time the rally was only .29%.  Trend is up.

Above is a short term view for GDX.  The bottom window is the Up/Down Volume % with a 7 period moving average; when above “0” is a bullish condition for GDX and below a bearish condition.  This indicator has been below “0” Since January 10.  Next window up is the Advance/Decline % with a 7 period moving average and readings below “0” are bearish (current reading is -34.39).  Next window up is the GDX/GLD ratio.  It’s a bullish sign for gold and gold stocks when this ratio is outperforming GDX.  GDX/GLD ratio closed below its December 19 low and GDX held above, showing GDX/GLD ratio is weaker than GDX and a bearish sign for both gold and Gold stocks short term.  There are cycles for a low due late January to early March and we are entering this cycle low now.  This potential pull back could lead to a longer bullish setup.  We will wait for the next bullish setup.