The All New Market Analysis – 9/11/2019

SPX Monitoring purposes; Sold SPX on 8/27/19 at 2869.16= gain .77%; long 8/23/19 at 2847.60.

Purposes GOLD: Long GDX on 1/29/19 at 21.96.

Long Term Trend SPX monitor purposes; Sold SPX 7/5/19 & 2990.41= gain 2.63%.

Above is the Volatility index VVIX for the VIX (VIX of the VIX).  The VVIX trades opposite of the SPY and when there is a divergence a reversal is possible.  The bottom window helps to visualize this method with is the SPY/VVIX ratio.  When this ratio is rising, it’s a bullish condition and when declining a bearish condition.  Today the SPY was near unchanged and the VVIX rallied which is a divergence suggesting a pull back in SPY is likely.  We are not looking for a big pull back but more then what we have had up to this point.  Ideally if market does pull back we would like to see panic reading in the tick and trin to trigger a bullish setup.   Tomorrow is September 11, (remember 2001 September 11) could represent a cycle turn date.

SPY appears to be stalling and a pull back is possible short term.  Three of the last four days, down tick closes where recorded even though market was near unchanged which are a bearish sign. There is a chance the SPY could pull back to the 290 range.  The low of September 3 (290 range) marked a gap fill for 8/29 on higher volume and suggests the September 3 low may be tested again and the reason why the 294 support could be broken. If the 9/3 test comes on lighter volume, would imply support and a bullish sign. A timeframe for a low could come this Wednesday which is September 11 and a new high during the FOMC meeting which is September 17 and 18.  Things may change but this is one scenario.  Being patience for now.

The two bottoms windows are “18 ma of the Advance/Decline” and “18 ma of the Up Down Volume”.  We have said in past reports, is that when both indicators drop below -10 a longer period GDX consolidation is anticipated.  Monday’s reading for the Up Volume indicator came in at -3.64 modestly down from Friday’s reading of -2.32. Monday’s reading for Advance/Decline was -4.40 and modestly down from -3.94 on Friday.  GDX today’s close is near unchanged and mostly likely will have little effect on Up down volume and Advance/Decline indicators readings. Our favored scenario is when both indicators hit +50 at the start of the rally the rally can last another seven months.  The last time both indicators hit +50 was back in early 2016 and GDX continued to rally another seven months.  This past May both indicators again hit the +50 range which opens the door for the current rally to continue into December which is the seven month period.   However if both indicators mentioned above, fall below -10 at any time we will have to re-evaluate.   Long GDX on 1/29/19 at 21.97.