SPX Monitoring purposes; Sold SPX 7/5/19 & 2990.41= Gain of 2.50%; Long SPX 6/25/19 at 2917.38.
Monitoring purposes GOLD: Long GDX on 1/29/19 at 21.96.
Long Term Trend SPX monitor purposes; Sold SPX 7/5/19 & 2990.41= gain 2.63%; Long SPX on 6-26-19 at 2913.78.
The second window up from the bottom is the SPY/VIX ratio. This ratio rises and falls with the SPY. This ratio turned down last Friday (one of the reasons we sold our SPX positions), and today it continued lower suggesting market could remain weak for short term. There is an open gap near 294 and could be a downside target. Not looking for a big decline here, just a consolidation and once completed, could lead to new highs.
Above is a longer term view for the SPX. The above chart is the three week average of the “American Association of Individual Investors bull bear ratio” (The third window up from the bottom). When this ratio is below .75 the market is near an intermediate term low (which was hit in late May). Intermediate term tops usually don’t form until this ratio reaches above 1.25. The current reading is .99. Next week is option expiration week which has a bullish bias. It common for a low to form between Wednesday (tomorrow) to as late as Tuesday during option expiration week. We will be looking for panic and a bullish setup in the coming days, ideally in the gap range near 294 SPY. (Sold SPX 7/5/19 & 2990.41= Gain of 2.50%; Long SPX on 6/25/19 at 2917.38.
Above is the Gold Miners index going back to 2007. The top window is the Bullish Percent index for the Gold Miners index with a 10 period moving average. The Bullish Percent index measures the percent of stocks that are on Point and Figure buy signals. When the 10 period moving average of the Bullish Percent index for the Gold Miners index is above 40%, an uptrend is in force (current reading is 64.00 %). Since this buy signal came after a long basing period in the Gold Miners index (over 2 ½ years) this buy signal could last a while. The intermediate term trend for the Gold Miners index remains bullish. We would have to reassess the situation if the 10 period moving average of the Bullish Percent index fell below 40%. Long GDX on 1/29/19 at 21.97.