The All New Market Analysis – 11/20/19

SPX Monitoring purposes; Flat.

Monitoring purposes GOLD: Long GDX on 1/29/19 at 21.96.

Long Term Trend SPX monitor purposes; Sold long term SPX on 10/24/19 at 3010.29=gain 1.49%; Long SPX on 10/14/19 at 2966.15.

The bottom window is the Bollinger Band width for the VIX which has reached very lows levels and levels where expansion for the VIX is likely.  Three of the last four Bollinger Band width this low (going back one year) lead to short term pullbacks in the SPY and the July one lead to a breakout above the May high.   Next window up is the SPY/VIX ratio.  This ratio rallies and falls with the SPY.   This ratio right now appears to be in the process of rolling over and would be a bearish development for the SPY.  Momentum rules everything and right now momentum for the SPY is still up.  Thanksgiving is next Thursday and its common that holiday’s can mark reversal.  Its possible that Thanksgiving could mark a high.

The second window up from the bottom is the NYSE McClellan oscillator.  Readings above “0” are bullish and below bearish.  Monday’s close came in at -43.09.  The tan areas show the times when the McClellan Oscillator was below “0”.  The market can go up with the McClellan oscillator below “0” (blue circles) but the odds point to a market that is peaking.   Yesterday marks five days up in row for the SPX.  When SPX is up five days in a row; SPX closes higher within five days 87% of the time.  Also the RSI (5) closed above 90, which shows strong momentum and predicts market will be higher within five days.  Though big gains in the SPX are unlikely, it appears market will hold steady and this steadiness could last into Thanksgiving holiday which next Thursday.  Odds are increasing that a pull back to support in the 3000 SPX over the next 30 days is possible. Being patience for now.

Bottom window is the18 moving average of the Advance/Decline percent and next window up is the 18 moving average of the Up Down Volume percent.  What we want to point out on both indicators is that both are “Coiling” above the “0” level.  This “Coiling” can also be observed back in mid 2018 right before GDX plunged from 22.00 to 17.00.  The “Coiling” back in 2018 was below the “0” level which is a bearish and the “Coiling” now is above the “0” level, which is bullish.   This “Coiling” suggests a surge is forthcoming in GDX. Long GDX on 1/29/19 at 21.97.