The All New Market Analysis – 09/04/19

SPX Monitoring purposes; Sold SPX on 8/27/19 at 2869.16= gain .77%; long 8/23/19 at 2847.60.

Purposes GOLD: Long GDX on 1/29/19 at 21.96.

Long Term Trend SPX monitor purposes; Sold SPX 7/5/19 & 2990.41= gain 2.63%.

Market appears to be basing according to this chart above.  Above is the weekly “The American Association of Individual Investors Bull/Bear ratio” (AAII) with a three period moving average. The chart goes back to mid 2014.  Readings below .75 have lead to intermediate term lows. The current reading is .64, up a tad from last week reading of .62 but remain in bullish intermediate term territory.  The Put/Call ratios for the Index and Totals are also bullish.  FOMC meeting is 9/17 to 18 and market bounce into that timeframe is possible.  Lots of crosscurrents now but a bullish setup may be close.  We do at some point expect the SPX low of August 5 (2822.12) to be tested but that test could hold off until October.  Sold SPX on 8/27/19 at 2869.16= gain .77%; long 8/23/19 at 2847.60.

The top window is the VIX of the VIX (VVIX).  The VVIX (along with the VIX) trades opposite of the SPY and when there is a divergence then market reversal may be nearby.  Today the SPY fell .69% and the VVIX closed near unchanged suggesting the SPY may be nearing a reversal.  The FOMC meeting is two weeks away and looks like at the moment that the SPY could rally into that timeframe.  Today’s decline did test the up gap form 8/29 on increased volume, suggesting no gap support and market could fall further.  Next low should produce panic in the tick and trin and a bullish setup. Being patience for now.

We are watching this chart closely at is at an area where a signal could be triggered.  The18 moving averages of the UP Down Volume (second window up from bottom) and 18 moving average of the Advance/Decline (bottom window) are above “0” but not by much.  A close near the minus 10 level on both indicators would suggest GDX is starting a larger consolidation phase.  Both indicators remain above “0” and bullish for now.  GDX’s next upside resistance is the 2016 high near 31.00 level.  The longer term trend remains up and the intermediate term trend remains up for now.  Long GDX on 1/29/19 at 21.97.