The All New Market Analysis – 08/07/19

SPX Monitoring purposes;  neutral.

Purposes GOLD: Long GDX on 1/29/19 at 21.96.

Long Term Trend SPX monitor purposes; Sold SPX 7/5/19 & 2990.41= gain 2.63%.

Today’s rally did not touch yesterday’s down gap but came close.  To officially test yesterday’s down gap on the SPY the market needs to rally past 288.21, yesterday’s intraday high; today’s high was 288.04. If the SPY continues to rally past Monday’s high of 288.21 and volume is lighter than Monday’s volume of 176M, than the gap will have resistance and create a short term high. Monday trading had a high volume day and most high volume days are tested and if tested on lighter volume will imply support.  In a nutshell, if market pushes higher tomorrow into the Monday’s gap and volume is lighter than Monday’s, a sell signal could develop with a minimum downside target to Mondays low.

Don’t think the final low is in. We had panic last week in the tick and trin which failed and usually the next panic is recorded in the tick and trin a bottom is formed. Yesterday sell off did not produce in proportion panic in the tick (-34) or trin (1.28), these reading should have been much higher for a bottom to form and therefore it does not appear the final low is in. Yesterday’s high volume low also needs testing to start the bottoming process. There is potential that yesterday’s gap could be a Mid Point gap (which marks the half way point of the move). If that turns out the case this time, it would have a target near the 200 day moving average.  Next low should be defined by large panic is the ticks and trin.

The two bottoms windows measure the health of the GDX rally.  The bottom window is the Advance/Decline for GDX with a 10 period moving average. GDX uptrend produces readings above the “0” level and down trend below “0” level. Current reading is +15.36.  Next window up is GDX Up/Down volume with a 10 period moving average.  Readings on this indicator above “0” produce up-trend in GDX and below “0” down-trends.  Current reading is +15.56.  We have outlined in red squares when both indicators where above “0” for an extended time. The blue squared outlined in the current time frames show where we are now. As long as both indicators remain above “0” the GDX rally may continue higher. For now 31.00 range which is the 2016 high, seems a reasonable upside target. Long GDX on 1/29/19 at 21.97.