The All New Market Analysis – 06/26/19

SPX Monitoring purposes; Long SPX on 6/25/19 at 2917.38.
Monitoring purposes GOLD: Long GDX on 1/29/19 at 21.96.
Long Term Trend SPX monitor purposes; Sold long SPX on 5/6/19 at 2932.61= gain 5.96%:

The chart above is the three week moving average of the “American Association of Individual Investors bull/bear ratio” going back to late 2010.  We have been showing this chart because is relative to the current timeframe.   We said, “Intermediate term rallies have occurred in the SPX when this ratio reached .75 and lower. The most recent low reading came in at .53 on June 3; it currently has bumped up to .87.  Going back to 2010, this ratio reached at least 1.25 before any worthwhile SPX top formed.  This week could see a retracement in the SPX but in general the market should move higher in the coming weeks.  We will be looking for a bullish setup in the coming days.”  Today’s pull back did produce a bullish setup.

The SPY was up four days in a row going into last Thursday.  When SPY up four days in a row; SPY closed higher within the next five days 87% of the time with an average gain of 1.1 %.  Also on today’s decline the tick and trin did reach panic levels which suggests a low was reached today to as late as two days later which would be Thursday.   July 4 is next Thursday (markets are closed) and holiday’s are common to producing reversals in the market.  We wouldn’t be surprised if market rallied to the July 4 timeframe.    (Long SPX on 6/25/19 at 2917.38.

The top window is the Bullish Percent index for the Gold Miners index with a 10 period moving average.  The Bullish Percent index measures the percent of stocks in an index that are on “Point & Figure” buy signals.  When the 10 period moving average of the Bullish Percent index rises above 40%, a bullish signal is generated for the Gold Miners Index.  The red vertical lines show when bullish signals where generated in the past.  The current read is 53.20%.  Some of these bullish and bearish signals in the past have lasted for months.  As long as the 10 period moving average of the Bullish Percent index for the Gold Miners index remain above 40% the uptrend should continue.  Long GDX on 1/29/19 at 21.97