The All New Market Analysis – 04/03/19

SPX Monitoring purposes; Sold SPX 3/28/19 & 2815.44= gain .61%; Long 2798.36 & 3/25/19.   Monitoring purposes GOLD: Long GDX on 1/29/19 at 21.96.

Long Term Trend SPX monitor purposes;  Long SPX on 10-19-18 at 2767.78

Divergences are still present. The SPY setting at a new short term high and the VIX closed at a higher low and a short term bearish sign. VIX trades opposite SPY and VIX should have made a new short term low as SPY made a new short term high.  Have said that the VIX remains below +16 and intermediate term bullish for the SPY. The bottom window is the XLF (ETF for Financials).  When XLF starts to have trouble it usually flows in the SPY.  The SPY setting at a short term high and XLF made a lower high and another divergence.  Bigger trend is up and new highs in SPX are possible, but short term a trading range could be developing.

Yesterday we said, “Ideally one would like to see the hourly Cumulative tick to lead and confirm the movement of the SPX and when there is a divergence than a reversal may be near.”  Today the SPX was unchanged and the 100 hourly tick (Top window) moved modestly lower and remains below “0” and a bearish sign.  The cumulative tick remained near unchanged today and not giving new information.  The second window up from the bottom is the 30 hourly moving average and its above ‘0” and a modestly bullish sign.  Market is stalling here and a pull back is possible but we don’t have high confidence for a short position, but that could change.  If there is a pull back, it could last a week or so and test last week low, so if there is a setup it could be worthwhile.  The safer trade in our opinion would be on the long side as bigger trend is up. Fun statistics, is that with VIX under +16 and SPX up +10% last 3 months, April is higher 90% of the time averaging 2.75% gain.   Sold long SPX position for a .61% gain.

The second window up from the bottom is the Up down volume with a 50 period moving average.  This indicator helps to identify bullish and bearish volume energy for GDX.  We have pointed out two bearish patterns in 2014 and 2016 (red boxes) where GDX made higher highs and 50 ma of UP Down volume made lower highs. We have a bullish long term divergence setup up now where 50 ma of Up Down volume has made higher highs as GDX matched its previous high suggesting at some point GDX will move to higher highs.  The Next window up is the 50 day moving average of the Advance/Decline for GDX which help identify advance/decline bullish and bearish setups.  This long term indicator also has made a higher high suggesting at some point GDX will make higher highs.  Higher prices in the intermediate term is expected but short term a pull back to support near 21.00 is possible.  Long GDX on 1/29/19 at 21.97.