Stocks Fall The Second Day in a Row on October 8

MACRO

Stocks fell again on October 8, closing at 2893 on the S&P 500.  The market had recovered most of its losses by mid-day but then fell on the headline of the US issuing Visa restrictions for members of Chinese officials tied to abuses in Xinjiang province. That sent stocks back to their lows of the day.

The market has been become increasingly hard to predict this week with all the headlines about trade. It would be nice if the market and the economy could fully decouple themselves from the daily trade headlines, but that seems to be impossible for now.

The pace of imports from China has slowed considerably, from $52.2 billion in October 2018 to $41.2 billion as of August 2018. Perhaps at some point, the number shall grow small enough that the market won’t care about trade with China. We can only hope the day the market doesn’t care comes soon.

 

S&P 500 (SPY)

My hopes for 2985 to this point appear to have been spoiled, and it is looking more like that the index will fall to 2875.

 

You can see that once again, the number of stocks below their 50day moving average is approaching the lows.

50 day aaverage

50 day aaverage

STOCKS

Nvidia (NVDAWealth Strength IndexAAPL is Extremely Up and trending Up)

It was not a great day for Nvidia, but the stock did manage to stop falling around support at $177.  The stock needs to hold this region to avoid a decline back to $171.

nvidia, nvda

nvidia, nvda

Microsoft (MSFTWealth Strength IndexAAPL is Extremely Up and trending Up)

Microsoft couldn’t even rise today after it got that substantial upgrade this morning. There is a clear downtrend now, and $132.50 to $133 need to hold. If not things get dramatically worse.

msft, microsoft,

msft, microsoft,

Freeport (FCX)

It is not looking good for my bullish call on Freeport. The stock fell to $8.50, and for the moment, it has stopped falling. It needs to stay here, or else we are looking at a drop to the downtrend around $8.25, pretty much killing my bullish call. Tomorrow will likely be a make or break day for this stock.

fcx, freeport

fcx, freeport

Copper

The only good news for Freeport is that copper price has remained firm.

copper

copper

Soybeans

Has anyone noticed soybean prices? They look like they ready for a big break out or a big let down. Maybe the soybean market knows something about a looming trade deal that the equity market is missing?

soybeans

soybeans

AMD (AMD)

AMD also didn’t have a good day, moving back down into the trading channel. Also not going the way I had intended. A failed break out? At the moment, yes. Again, tomorrow will be telling, because another down day sets up a retest of $27.40.

AMD

AMD

Intel (INTCWealth Strength IndexAAPL is Extremely Up and trending Up)

Let’s see; I’m sure there is something else I am getting wrong because it seems like everything is going against me to start the week. Yeah, Intel, that one isn’t looking so great at the moment. We need to see this one start to move higher, or back to $49 we go.

intel, intc

intel, intc

That’s all, my brain feels like mush today.

-Mike

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