Stocks Fall As Oil Surges and the Odds of a Rate Cut Continue to Drop

MACRO

Stocks had a mild decline with the S&P 500 falling by roughly 30 basis point, nothing dire. However, what did have a significant change is the odds of a rate cut on Wednesday. Currently, the odds of a 25 bps rate cut on September 16 have fallen to just 63.5%.

Fed Funds Futures have been gradually creeping higher in recent days. It suggests that a rate cut is no slam dunk on Wednesday, and one should mentally beginning to prepare for a scenario where the Fed doesn’t cut rates.  I talked about this a lot today in my video; in fact, I spent the whole video going through this and why they may not cut rates. The Odds Of No Rate Cut Are Rising Sharply- Get the first two weeks for free.

fed funds

fed funds

I still expect a rate cut on Wednesday. However, I think Powell will have to position his stance as act as appropriate to sustain the expansion, without signaling futures cuts are happening.  I don’t envy him.

Oil

The move higher in oil was so important me that I totally forget to even mention it until I was writing the title. Oops. Anyway, WTI oil hit resistance at $63.55, and pullback. We’ll see what happens tomorrow.

oil

oil

S&P 500

As of now, the chart of the S&P 500 looks fine, and the trend continues to be higher for now.

spy,

spy,

STOCKS

Acadia (ACAD)

Acadia had a big day, rising by over 9%. The stock rose above resistance at $42. It means that the next significant level of technical resistance at $48. I’m sure if the move up today is on expectations of another event? The negative symptoms study isn’t likely to see results until late October. acadia, acad

acadia, acad

Blackberry (BB)

Blackberry had a good day but failed at the downtrend line around $7.75. I think the stock breaks the downtrend and continues higher on to $8. That RSI is continuing to rise nicely.

blackberry, bb

blackberry, bb

Micron (MUWealth Strength IndexMU is Moderately Flat and trending Down)

Micron managed to hold support around $49 today, and still, I think the stock can continue to work higher towards $54.The company reports results on September 26.

micron, mu

micron, mu

Amazon (AMZNWealth Strength IndexAMZN is Extremely Flat and trending Up)

Amazon was down today on the WSJ article, but the outlook for the stock seems unchanged. The stock is still holding the uptrend and support around $1800.

amazon, amzn

amazon, amzn

Netflix (NFLXWealth Strength IndexNFLX is Moderately Flat and trending Down)

Finally, Netflix managed to scratch out a minor gain. The stock is emerging from the falling wedge and even close over $293. Hopefully, it is a sign of good things to come and the start of its move higher. Premium content – Netflix Still Has Some Life LeftGet the first two weeks free to try. 

netflix, nflx

netflix, nflx

Have a good evening.

-Mike

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