Stock Market Bulls: You Call This a Rally?

Sure, the market rallied on Friday ahead of a long weekend and after a significant selloff.

Yet, dogs, who typically look straight into their human’s eyes for a lead, now glance incredulously to the side.

Wisely, these dogs have their doubts about following their humans into fresh equity longs in the market.

These dogs ask, “You call this a rally?”

Although we see a bounce, particularly in KRE (Regional Banks-bottom left) and IBB (Biotechnology-bottom middle) off the 200-weekly MAs (green line), none of the other members did very much to show real strength.

Half of the Family remained in the red. Semiconductors SMH, Transportation IYT, and Retail XRT, could not hold onto early gains.

This does not engender a vote of real confidence.

On the other hand, with KRE and IBB holding onto key support, we will watch for their lead come Tuesday.

So, equities may have had their shallow rally on Friday.

But some commodities posted greater gains, and with better than average volume.

CORN, for example, gained over 2% as the plains are flooded and the window of opportunity to plant more is diminshing.

Coffee and sugar closed higher, along with the cotton, beans, wheat and gold.

Hence, Memorial Day marks the first of the dog days of summer.

So before you play knick knack paddy wack and give your dog a bone, make sure you are following the correct old man that comes rolling home.

S&P 500 (SPY) If cannot clear 284.50, then look for a move to around 277 is where the next major moving averages sit.

Russell 2000 (IWM) The 3/25 low was 148.41. Significant? Only if it holds. 152.50 good resistance

Dow (DIA) 253.40 is the 50-week MA. If that fails, besides IWM, it will be the second but not the last index to break that level. Resistance at 257.00

Nasdaq (QQQ) If this cannot get back over 179.85, then 174.40-174.60 is the test of the underlying MAs.

KRE (Regional Banks) 51.36 the 200-WMA holding. As it closed green, look for some follow though above 53.00 if that should clear

SMH (Semiconductors) 102 the big resistance with 99.00 some support

IYT (Transportation) 180 next best support with 184.50 resistance

IBB (Biotechnology) 103.26 the 200 WMA pivotal with 105.37 resistance

XRT (Retail) 42.12 broke. Now resistance to clear