SPY Trends and Influencers April 27, 2019

Last week’s review of the macro market indicators saw with April Options Expiration behind, the equity markets held up well and still looked strong. Elsewhere looked for Gold ($GLD) to head lower while Crude Oil ($USO) paused in its move higher. The US Dollar Index ($DXY) looked to continue to move sideways while US Treasuries ($TLT) might end their pullback. The Shanghai Composite ($ASHR) and Emerging Markets ($EEM) looked to continue to move to the upside.

Volatility ($VXXB) looked to remain very low keeping the bias higher for the equity index ETF’s $SPY, $IWM and $QQQ. Their charts were a bit mixed though in the shorter timeframe with the QQQ strong and heading higher, the SPY consolidating and the IWM retrenching. All three looked stronger in the weekly timeframe.

The week played out with Gold finding support and bouncing back late in the week while Crude Oil met resistance Tuesday and reversed lower. The US Dollar broke above the long consolidation and fell back to rest the break by Friday while Treasuries started a move higher mid-week. The Shanghai Composite made a short term double top as it dropped from resistance while Emerging Markets made a higher low as they moved up Friday.

Volatility continued to hold in a tight range at low levels, keeping the bias higher for equities. The Equity Index ETF’s all held steady on Monday but then moved higher Tuesday. The SPY and QQQ consolidated after that, the latter at all-time highs, while the IWM remained stuck in its consolidation range. What does this mean for the coming week? Let’s look at some charts.

SPY Daily, $SPY

The SPY came into the week just below the all-time highs. It held there Monday and then moved higher Tuesday. The rest of the week it consolidated just a hair away from the prior top, ending the week at the highs. The Bollinger Bands® are squeezing in on the daily chart. The RSI is holding at the cusp of overbought with the MACD flat and positive.

On the weekly chart the price made a new weekly closing high. The RSI is rising in the bullish zone and the MACD is rising and positive. Both have a lot of room above. There is no resistance over 294. Support lower comes at 292 and from 290.50 to 289.50 then 287 and 285. Uptrend.

SPY Weekly, $SPY

Winding down the last days of April the equity markets remain strong on longer timeframe and mixed but good on the shorter timeframe. Elsewhere look for Gold to possibly reverse high out of a pullback while Crude Oil pauses in its uptrend. The US Dollar Index has changed to a short term uptrend while US Treasuries are biased higher. The Shanghai Composite and Emerging Markets are both pulling back in their uptrends.

Volatility looks to remain very low keeping the bias higher for the equity index ETF’s SPY, IWM and QQQ. Their charts are strong in the weekly timeframe with the QQQ leading the way at all-time highs and the SPY right behind with the IWM improving. On the daily timeframe the QQQ may be ready for a pause and it might be time for it to pass the baton to the IWM which is back at resistance. The SPY meanwhile remains strong and a fraction from new all-time highs. Use this information as you prepare for the coming week and trad’em well.

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