Someone Forgot To Tell The US Economy It Was In A Recession, Oops!

The economic data on August 15 was good but what was even better was that GDPNow print from the Atlanta Fed that ticked up to 2.2%. Now, based on my prior work, GDPNow generally runs lighter than real GDP, by about 50 basis points. Is it possible that the third quarter real GDP is tracking at 2.7%? It seems possible to me, and that would seem to be at odds with the calls for a recession? Isn’t anyone else tired of this recession/global growth slowdown non-sense? We have been talking about the same story since October. It has been nearly a year now, and there is no recession on the horizon. Maybe that all changes and things fall off a cliff, but at this point, I can’t find any data here in the US that suggests a recession is on the way anytime within a reasonable time horizon.

Don’t even start with me about the 10-2 yield curve. The US and Germany spread would speak of something entirely different.

Not to mention, if the Fed and the ECB are both about to get easier on monetary policy in September isn’t possible that by the spring of next year the economies of the world start to accerlate.  Additionally, it seems to me with the election on the line Trump is going to have an ace up his sleeve and will get something with China done. I’m just thinking out loud here.

S&P 500 (SPY)

I’m not sure of what to make of the trading action in the S&P 500 on August 15, other than the fact it seems clear the sellers still have the upper hand. The index could not stay over resistance at 2,850 all day. The bears took a swipe at breaking the bulls, testing support at 2,825 but the bulls held the line. Is it potentially setting up a bullish reversal triple bottom? It would nice to think that is the case. I’m not entirely sure, and we won’t know any better until after 2,850 is taken out.

Unfortunately, we need to wait for tomorrow.

s&P 500, spy

s&P 500, spy

Nvidia (NVDAWealth Strength IndexAAPL is Extremely Up and trending Up)

Nvidia is rising this afternoon after reporting better results. Guidance seems a bit light at $2.9 billion at the mid-point versus estimates for $2.97 billion. This is not the Nvidia of old, where we use to see big beats and raises. I will take a closer look later. Nothing changes for the chart; resistance sits somewhere around $171.

nvidia, nvda

nvidia, nvda

GE (GE)

Wow. GE fell a lot today over 11% to finish at $8. I guess those put buyers made out alright. 😛 GE: Game Over

ge

ge

Netflix (NFLXWealth Strength IndexAAPL is Extremely Up and trending Up)

Maybe I’m dreaming, but perhaps Netflix is about to turn higher, finally. It appears the stock is once again flirting with a long-term uptrend, and maybe it has formed a falling wedge. Additionally, there seems to be a bullish divergence that has developed in the RSI, which suggest the stock begins to rise. Again, I have been off on NFLXWealth Strength IndexAAPL is Extremely Up and trending Up the last few months, so wishful thinking? We will find out soon.

netflix, nflx

netflix, nflx

Tesla (TSLAWealth Strength IndexAAPL is Extremely Up and trending Up)

We have time for one more. Tesla is falling through support at $225, and now it looks like it wants to test the break out at the trend line, perhaps around $205.

tesla, tsla.

tesla, tsla.

It just dawns on me how much the TSLAWealth Strength IndexAAPL is Extremely Up and trending Up chart looks like the one below.  I mean, what are the chance that Tesla’s chart and the weekly chart of the 10-year Treasury yield going back to 2004 look so similar? Bizzare right?

us10y

us10y

Or Intel’s.

intel

intel

Gives you something to think about, huh? It should…

This post originally appeared on Mott Capital.

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