I have no crystal ball. I do not pretend to be able to predict the future. What I do is follow what has happened and extrapolate as to what might be. I get there by assessing the potential paths and current sentiment and then betting on my assessment of the probability of one scenario playing out. You see this day-to-day applied to the market. But this is how I live the uncertain part of my life as well.
If you do not have a process like this for your life why would anyone expect you can apply it to a living thing like a market. But maybe more importantly, if you assess markets one way and then espouse the future but do not apply those techniques to your life it shows a lack of faith in your process. Telling me with certainty what will happen is a fools game, both in and out of markets. I have no crystal ball.
What I do have is eyes that see prices rising off of a low. With sentiment also at extreme lows. And earnings estimate growth accelerating. This sets the table for more upside price action. In the short term sentiment and patterns indicate an easier path to the upside and a target in the short run of a move back to the all-time high in the S&P 500. That is how I am positioned. But I do not know if it will happen. I have no crystal ball.
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