Risk On Tone Keeps FX Steady

Market Drivers August 21, 2019
BoJo in talks with Merkel and Macron
Risk on flows dominate
Nikkei -0.28% Dax +1.11%
UST 10Y 1.59%
Oil $56/bbl
Gold $1499/oz
BTCUSD $10100

Europe and Asia:
GBP UK PSNB -2.0B vs. -3.7B

CAD CPI 8:30
USD Existing Home Sales 10:00

Another very quiet night of trade in FX today as markets remain in a state of equilibrium amidst little fresh news and generally quiet summer flows. A better risk-on tone has helped to keep both USDJPY and USDCHF slightly bid but the moves have been modest.

Ahead of the meeting between Boris Johnson and Merkel and Macron German officials tried to clarify their stance on the backstop for Northern Ireland noting that an open border was a non-negotiable point. Yesterday cable took off after media reports that Merkel was open to “practical” solutions but if today’s talks lead to no progress than cable may give up all of yesterday’s gains.

The central sticking point in Brexit negotiations remains the issue of the Irish border and if that condition can be overcome perhaps by simply leaving the status of the border as is and extending the talks on that point into the future while ratifying the rest of the agreement, cable would see such a solution as a major positive for the currency.

Meanwhile, the markets remain generally quiet with traders awaiting the Fed minutes later today and more importantly the Jackson Hole symposium later this week as markets look for any further monetary hints from the Fed.