Retail Sales Stronger Than Expected–There’s Hope Yet Of Fending Off A Recession

Retail sales in July climbed 0.7% from June. Economists surveyed by had predicted a 0.3% climb.

Retail sales excluding autos were up 1.0% month over month. Economists had projected a 03% gain.

Nonstore retail sales (that is the Internet) were up 2.8% after a 1.9% jump in June.

Food services were among the strongest sectors with sales climbing 1.1% after a 0.7% gain in June.

This data runs only until the end of July so it misses any shift in consumer behavior as a result of increased China trade war jitters since then.

But on the evidence of these numbers, the U.S. consumer continues to spend. And while the U.S. consumer keeps opening his or her wallet, it’s hard to see a U.S. recession in the near term whatever the inverted yield curve might be saying.

Although the yield curve did invert again today with the yield on the 10-year Treasury briefly falling below 1.5% for the first time since 2016. The yield on the 10-year Treasury finished at 1.52%, down another 6 basis points for the day. The yield on the 2-year Treasury closed at 1.49%.

The U.S. dollar finished higher with the Dollar Spot Index (DXY) gaining 0.15%