Overnight Recap 12/24

Opportunistic Trader Overnight Recap 12/24
Top Headlines:
-Treasury Secretary Mnuchin holds weekend meeting with top Bank CEO’s to discuss liquidity.
-Government Shutdown looks to continue into January


European and Asian stock markets were mostly lower overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward modestly higher openings when the New York day session begins. Look for a quieter trading session in North American markets today. U.S. stock and financial markets close early today for the Christmas holiday. Most world markets are closed on Tuesday for Christmas Day.

There is some marketplace unease over the U.S. government’s partial shutdown that could last a while. U.S. Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin contacted large U.S. banks over the weekend, which confirmed to Mnuchin they have liquidity, following large losses in the U.S. stock market that pushed stock indexes to new lows for the year overnight.

The markets are also a bit concerned about turmoil in the Trump administration that has seen the president’s top staff resign, including his defense secretary.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index weaker. Meantime, Nymex crude oil prices are slightly lower after hitting a 17-month low of $45.13 a barrel on Friday.

U.S. economic data due for release Monday is light and includes the Chicago Fed national activity index.

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading today after hitting a new low for the year overnight. Bears are in solid technical command and there are no early clues of a market bottom being close at hand. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 2,450.00 and then at 2,475.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at the overnight contract low of 2,401.00 and then at 2.380.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels.

March Nasdaq index December futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading and hit a new low for the year overnight. Bears are in solid technical control. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 6,150.00 and then at 6,200.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at the overnight contract low of 6,107.75 and then at 6,050.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Prices last week hit a contract high. Bulls are in solid near-term technical control. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the contract high of 146 even and then at 146 16/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 144 17/32 and then at 144 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels.

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Prices last week hit a contract high. Bulls have the solid chart advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the contract high of 121.13.5 and then at 121.20.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 121.00.0 and then at 120.28.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels.

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The March U.S. dollar index is lower on a corrective pullback from good gains last Friday. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage but have faded a bit recently. The shorter-term moving averages for the dollar index are neutral early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the dollar index are bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 96.440 and then at Friday’s high of 96.560. Shorter-term support is seen at 96.000 and then at last week’s low of 95.630.

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

February Nymex crude oil prices are slightly lower. Prices Friday hit a 17-month low. Bears are in strong overall near-term technical control. There are still no early clues that a market bottom is close at hand, but there is strong longer-term technical support at the $42.00 area that may stop the bleeding. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $46.24 and then at $47.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $45.00 and then at $44.00.

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were mixed overnight. The grains are being bearishly impacted by the very shaky world stock, financial and currency markets. The grain market bears have the overall near-term technical advantage.