Overnight Recap 1/14/2019

European and Asian stock markets were lower overnight, while U.S. stock indexes are also pointed down when the New York day session begins.

There is keener risk aversion in the market place to start the trading week, following some very downbeat economic news coming out of China. China’s exports in December were down a surprising 4.4%, year-on-year. Exports were up 5.4% in November. China’s imports fell 7.6% in the same period. In past months both imports and exports saw double-digit gains. The trade war with the U.S. has really hurt China’s economy, the latest import and export numbers suggest. Such will likely embolden the U.S. is its trade posture against China. Last week the two sides met in Beijing and are scheduled to meet next in the U.S.

There was also dour economic news coming out of the European Union Monday. The Euro zone’s factory output dropped 1.7% in November from October, for the largest monthly drop in three years. The reading was down 3.3%, year-on-year, for the biggest drop in six years.

In other overnight news, Newmont Mining and Goldcorp reported the two companies plan to combine to create the world’s largest gold miner.

Brexit is back in the minds of traders and investors in Europe. Voters in the U.K. on Tuesday are likely to reject Prime Minister May’s latest Brexit plan, putting the entire Brexit situation into serious turmoil.

The U.S. government partial shutdown is now the longest on record. The matter is not a serious drag on the marketplace, but many markets are lacking normal economic reports to drive their daily price action, which is causing uncertainty and some anxiety amid the dearth of news, which is generally bearish for those impacted markets.

The important outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly lower. The index remains in a near-term price downtrend. Meantime, Nymex crude oil prices are lower and trading just below $51.00 a barrel.

There is no major U.S. economic data due for release Monday.

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading today. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are still bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 2,600.00 and then at 2,625.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at 2,550.00 and then at last week’s low of 2,523.25. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels.

March Nasdaq index December futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are still bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 6,602.50 and then at last week’s high of 6,645.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at 6,500.00 and then at 6,450.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading today. Bulls are in overall near-term technical control. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 146 16/32 and then at 147 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 145 24/32 and then at last week’s low of 144 30/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels.

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the firm chart advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 122.09.0 and then at 122.15.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 121.29.0 and then at 121.24.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels.

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The March U.S. dollar index is weaker in early U.S. trading. The bulls are fading and prices have been trending lower on the daily chart for the past month. The shorter-term moving averages for the dollar index are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the dollar index are bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at Friday’s high of 95.365 and then at 95.615. Shorter-term support is seen at 95.000 and then at last week’s low of 94.635.

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

February Nymex crude oil prices are lower on profit taking and a corrective pullback after hitting a three-week high of $53.31 on Friday. The shorter-term moving averages are still bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $52.11 and then at $53.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $50.00 and then at $49.00.

GRAINS

Grain futures were lower overnight, on the dour economic news coming out of China. Also, the U.S. government closure has created a dearth of fresh fundamental news for the grain