One Number To Focus On In The Nasdaq 100 ETF

Since March began the broad market, including the Nasdaq 100, have pulled back and come close to the 200 day SMA and a retest of the February lows. For bullish investors it has been a frustrating time as a great economic story gets caught up in a mess of worry about trade wars, privacy, tensions in Syria and the continual discussion about what the Russians are doing.It has also been a frustrating time for the bearish tribe as the markets fail to make new lows.

Each side gets new hope as a 1 or 2 day rally or drop approaches key price levels. But then the excitement turns back to frustration as the move peters out. Stepping back from the day to day price action the Nasdaq 100 ETF has been in a range since this last move lower. I noted the broader range in the SPY yesterday and it exists in the QQQ as well. but the tighter more recent range is worth looking at more closely.

First note that the range since March 28th is holding over rising trend support since the Presidential election. Trend support does not reflect points where actual price battles have occurred so I tend to put less weight on it, but respect it nonetheless. Next the low in the move on April 2nd was a higher low than the February low. Following a higher high this signals the long term uptrend remains intact. But in the short run the QQQ need to break and close over 162 to break the frustration to the upside. This is a 38.2% retracement of the down leg and has stopped it 3 times, including Tuesday. Until that happens the frustration continues for bulls.

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