Nifty RBI Policy Analysis

  • FII’s bought 3.4 K contract of Index Future worth 92 cores 2.9 K Long contract were covered by FII’s and 6.4 K  Short contracts were covered by FII’s. Net Open Interest decreased  by 10.4 K contract, so fall in Nifty was used by FII’s to exit long and exit short in  Index futures. FII’s Long to Short Ratio at 2.24.
  • As Discussed in Last Analysis  Till 11740 is not crossed no longs should be taken. Long above 11740  for a move back to 11800/11866. Bearish below 11640 for a move towards 11570/11512. Nifty formed double top today at 11760 whipsawed us at 11740 and closed just above our sell level of 11740,Our Intraday short level shared on twitter worked perfectly. Bulls will get active 11678 for a 11726/11760/11810. Bears will get active below 11640 for a move towards 11570/11512

  • Nifty April Future Open Interest Volume is at 1.56 core with liquidation  of 3 Lakh with  increase in  cost of carry suggesting short position were covered today, NF Rollover cost @11537.
  • Total Future & Option trading volume at 9.84  Lakh core with total contract traded at 1.11  lakh , PCR @0.88
  • 11800 CE  is having Highest OI  at 16.5 Lakh, resistance at 11700  followed by 11800 .11000-11800 CE added 1 Lakh in OI so bears added position in range of 11600-11800. FII sold 8.8 K CE and 6.5 K shorted CE were covered by them. Retail bought 158 K CE and 77.1 K CE were shorted by them
  • 11500 PE OI@21.2 Lakhs having the highest OI strong support at 11400 followed by 11300 . 11000-11600 PE added 5.6 Lakh in OI so bulls added position in range 11300-11400 PE.FII bought 14.8 K PE and 1.8 K PE were shorted by them. Retail sold 23.5 K PE and 136 K shorted  PE were covered by them.

Buy above 11740 Tgt 11760,11790 and 11816 (Nifty Spot Levels)

Sell below 11630 Tgt 11610,11585 and 11550 (Nifty Spot Levels)

Upper End of Expiry : 11758

Lower End of Expiry:11529