The All New Market Analysis – March 7th, 2018

SPX Monitoring purposes; Short SPX on 3/6/18 at 2728.12
Monitoring purposes GOLD: Short GDX on 3/6/18 at 22.02.
Long Term Trend SPX monitor purposes: Sold long SPX on 3/5/18 at 2720.94= gain 5.42; Long SPX on 2/8/18 at 2581.00.

This is the week before Option expiration week which can produce whipsaws and normally weakness in the market.  Yesterday the Equity Put Call ratio closed at .55 which has produced weakness in the market in the next 3 to 5 days of an average of .8% loss 88% of the time.  Short SPX on 3/6/18 at 2728.12.

Last week a Bearish Candlestick pattern called “Three Black Crows” formed.   This pattern has about the same sizes candles, with increased volume on each lower candle.  The “Three Black Crows” imply a sharp decline is coming.   The last three day rise in the market produce lower volume each day, showing upside energy is decreasing and a bearish sign.  We are expecting another pull back to start soon that should at least break the previous low if not lower.  Some interesting statistics; March expiration has odds being higher 69% of the time and has the highest gains of all expiration months.   Next two weeks should be interesting. Short SPX on 3/6/18 at 2728.

GDX gaped down February 27 and left an open gap near 22.00 range and that gap was tested today on lighter volume suggesting this gap has resistance.   The GDX/GLD ratio is showing relative weakness compared to GDX as GDX closed above it February 27 high and GDX/GLD ratio closed below its  February 27 high.   The Selling Climax of February 9 so far has not been touched and still expect that area to be tested at a minimum and if that area doesn’t hold than next downside target would be the 18.50 range which is the December 2016 low.  Short GDX on 3/6/18 at 22.12