The All New Market Analysis – Mar 28th, 2018

SPX Monitoring purposes; Long SPX on 3/22/18 at 2643.69.
Monitoring purposes GOLD: Covered short GDX on 3/21/18 at 21.86 = gain .073%; Short on 3/6/18 at 22.02.
Long Term Trend SPX monitor purposes: Long SPX 3/14/18 at 2749.48.

Top window is the equity Put/Call ratio with a close yesterday at .76.  Readings >.75 predict market will be higher 88% of the time in next 5 days = average gain of 1.3%. Next window down is Total Put/Call ratio closing yesterday at 1.56. Reading above 1.20 predict higher market in 5 days 92% of the time with average gain of 1.8%. Bottom window is the Index Put/Call ratio closing yesterday at 1.76; reading above 1.75 predict market will be higher 90% of the time in the next five days.  First upside target is gap level near 2700 on the SPX; could go to previous high near 2800.   Long SPX on 3/22/18 at 2643.69.

Last Friday the TRIN closed at 1.29 and TICKS at -784; Last Thursday the TRIN closed at 2.11 and the ticks at minus 273; both are bullish combinations.  Today the TRIN closed at 1.51 and Ticks at -190 = bullish combination suggesting a bottom is near.  On Yesterday’s commentary we said, “Friday produced a high volume low and most high volume lows are tested at some point to put in a lasting bottom and we where expecting that come today.  Instead the market rallied pushing the test into some future date.  Its possible the market could fall back tomorrow and put in the test and as long the test comes in on lighter volume, a worthwhile low will form.”  Today’s decline did not touch Friday’s low but could test that low tomorrow.  On the chart above we identified previous high volume lows and their test on lighter volumes setting up the next rally phase.  Tomorrow could setup the next rally phase depending on the lighter volume test.

In bullish runs in GDX, the GDX/GLD ratio outperforms GDX and that is not happening here. Notice that GDX is holding above its previous lows where GDX/GLD ratio fell below its previous lows showing GDX/GLD ratio is weaker than GDX and a bearish sign for GDX.  Not all indicators work all the time and it could be the case where GDX/GLD ratio is not working.  The bottom window is the 50 day average of the Up Down Volume for the Gold Miners index which looks at the bigger picture. Readings above “0’ are bullish and below bearish and current reading is -3.14.  Next window up is the 50 day average of the Advance/Decline for Gold Miners index.  Readings above “0” are bullish and below bearish. Current reading is -7.96.  May be the market is setting up for a one more plunge before staring its major trend higher.  Still neutral for now.