The All New Market Analysis – Mar 14th, 2018

SPX Monitoring purposes;  Neutral
Monitoring purposes GOLD: Short GDX on 3/6/18 at 22.02.
Long Term Trend SPX monitor purposes: Sold long SPX on 3/5/18 at 2720.94= gain 5.42; Long SPX on 2/8/18 at 2581.00.

Yesterday we said, “ If market does soften short term, a way to help identity a low is near is when the TRIN reaches >1.50.   The February 20-21 and March 7-8 consolidation marked times when the TRIN >1.50.  Support lies near the gap level 275 on the SPY and if TRIN reaches 1.50 or higher in that region will suggest the gap has support and market may attempt another rally phase from there.”  Today the TRIN did reach over 1.50 and closed at 1.43 suggesting there is panic in market and nearing a low.  Support near 275 on the SPY has not been touched yet but could be tested tomorrow.  Market appears to be near a low and a bullish setup could materialize shortly.  Neutral now.

Today the TRIN closed at 1.43 and the Ticks at -261 and a bullish combination suggesting a bottom could form as early as today to as late as two days later (Thursday at the latest).  Normally TRIN and Ticks extremes that happen on the day of a high the market usually does not mark a bottom the same day but can mark a low the second day or third day after those extremes.  Therefore Wednesday or Thursday would be more ideal for a low in the market to form.  Next potential upside target would be the 282 to 286 region on the SPY.

The above chart looks at the shorter timeframe which may encompass the next several days.  It is said that the GDX/GLD ratio leads the way for GDX.  The top window is GDX which still rides above its December 2017 low.  Next window down is the GDX/GLD ratio which is far below its December low; suggesting GDX at some point will break its December low and keeps the short term picture bearish for now.  At some point the GDX/GLD ratio will start to outperform GDX and be the time to turn back bullish.  The longer term trend remains bullish, just the short term trend is still showing bearish signs. Short GDX on 3/6/18 at 22.02