The All New Market Analysis – Feb 14th, 2018

SPX Monitoring purposes; Long SPX on 2/8/18 at 2581.00.
Monitoring purposes GOLD: Neutral.
Long Term Trend SPX monitor purposes: Long SPX on 2/8/18 at 2581.00.

The above is a 5 minute chart of the SPY. In Elliott Wave terms, a five count wave up form the February 9 low was counted. Impulse wave come in five count and suggest the SPY is now in an uptrend. The fifth wave of the five count up appears to have completed yesterday. After a five count is completed an ABC consolidation pattern forms and this consolidation pattern is progress now.

We are not sure how this potential ABC pattern will form but one interpolation is laded out above. ABC Elliott wave patterns form at the half way point of the move giving the potential upside target for the SPY near the 276 (2760 on the SPX). Trend is up but not sure how long the consolidation pattern will last. Long SPX on 2/8/18 at 2581.00.

We posted this chart yesterday and we expect it will play an important part to what expect when the January 26 high is tested and worth a repeat, “The chart above looks at the bigger picture and can lead us to what may happen in the future.

Intermediate term declines can occur when the NYSE McClellan Summation index (second window down from top) turns down before reaching +500 and the NYSE Stocks above 150 day average (second window up from bottom) turn down before reaching 70%. This chart goes back to late 2012 and shows the times when The NYSE McClellan Summation index failed to reach above +500 and the stocks above 150 day average failed to reach above 70%. Stocks weaken before they reverse and the weakening stage has started.

Market don’t just make a high and turn down, it makes tests of previous highs at least once if not several times. Therefore the high of January 26 will be at least tested once if nor more. The test of the January 26 high will be the time to watch where the McClellan Summation and stocks above 150 day average stand.”

Yesterday we said, “It is said that GDX/GLD ratio leads the way for GDX. If that hold true, than GDX may best test its December 2016 low near 18.50 as GDX/GLD ratio already tested its December 2016 low.” For very short term GDX did produce a “Selling Climax” on February 9 which stopped the decline. There is an open gap from February 6 near 22.50 and could be an upside target.

If the February 6 gap is tested on lighter volume than a bearish signal could develop with a potential down side target near the December 2016 low near 18.50. We will also have to monitor the “Selling Climax” low near 21.00 as a potential low. The next low for GDX could setup a longer term buy signal. For now the trend is down with a short term bounce potential. Staying neutral for now.