The All New Market Analysis – Apr 25th, 2018

SPX Monitoring purposes; Covered 4/23/18 at 2670.29= .85% gain; Short SPX on 4/19/18 at 2693.13
Monitoring purposes GOLD: Long GDX on 4/18/18 at 22.98.
Long Term Trend SPX monitor purposes: Long SPX 3/14/18 at 2749.48.

The top window is the 20 period moving average of the tick on a 60 minute timeframe.  In general the 20 MA of the tick stays above “0” in uptrend and below “0” in down trends.  Market did break through support near the 267 SPY level and that level now becomes resistance.   The 20 MA of the tick remains below “0” and bearish for now. Did not record panic in the trin or tick close today, suggesting the bottom lies lower.  If market does bounce short term, we may consider a short position again with downside targets from 257 to 255 range. We said yesterday, “There was enough evidence for a possible bounce to cover our short position today for a gain of .85%.”, however market did break support today and most like will find panic near the April lows where a buy signal could setup.

Today the SPY tested the open gap of April 10 on increased volume and suggests the gap support will fail.  If market does bounce short term, we may consider another short position with a downside target to the April lows. We did not record any panic in the Tick or Trin close today suggesting no worthwhile low is forming here.  If market does head lower short term a bullish setup may appear near the April lows in the 255 range.  Staying neural for now.

The longer term indicators for Gold stocks are starting to come in focus and are telling a bullish sign.  The top window is the 20 day average of the Bullish percent index for the Gold Miners index.  Readings above 40% have signaled the start of an intermediate term rally.  Yesterday’s close came in at 43.04% and a bullish longer term sign.   We have circled in red the times when the 20 day average of the Bullish Percent index has closed above 40% going back to 2008.  The daily Bullish percent index closed yesterday at 53.57% and the longer the daily stays above 40% the 20 day average will remain on a bullish signal. Market has made or is making a longer term bottom and the next rally could last several months or longer.  Long GDX on 4/18/18 at 22.98.