Want to trade someone else’s list of Picks for 2018?
I do read very few of other people’s or firm’s picks-mainly to see if they agree with my own personal list.
However, regardless of whether these lists resonate with you or not, what these lists lack are two essential components.
1. Any strategy for tracking, trading and managing the picks.
2. How the macro picture, and particularly sector rotation, impacts anyone’s list.
Oh sure, predictions sound so smart. “I think gold is going to infinity.” “You should be long oil.” “My best pick for 2018 is Commercial Metals CMC.”
Well, the last one is true and my pick. However, it has risen by 12% in 2 days. My subscribers got in a few weeks ago based on rotation and a phase change.
They have already taken 2 profit targets and have a trailing stop.
And that’s my point exactly. Great pick. All about timing, rotation, the macro scene and of course, the risk to reward ratio.
Which brings me back to the Modern Family.
To date, I have yet to find anything that tells you so accurately about the sentiment of the US economy and where folks are, are not, or could put their money. With precise timing.
What does our lovable Family say now?
The chart is of the weekly price action. Each bar represents one full week.
The dotted line is the 50-Week Moving Average. The solid line is the 200-Week Moving Average.
Today, money flowed into Biotechnology (IBB). Do I find this surprising?
Not only did I do a whole Daily on IBB clearing 107.50, but also shared that this highly speculated sector must see flow to keep up market confidence.
Moving left to right on the top row: Regional Banks (KRE) consolidating in the bullish phase. Banks have been impacted some by bitcoin and the tax plan. Through 60.00, we could see new money flow in.
Semiconductors (SMH) cleared 100 and is now working on confirming a bullish phase on the daily chart. SMH could see follow through from tech stocks.
Bottom Row: Transportation (IYT)-Another one I did a Daily on with the advice to buy over 175. It’s now trading 195. 190 is support and with promises of an infrastructure plan, could see 200.
Granny Retail (XRT). Notice how well it followed through a few weeks ago once it cleared the 50-week MA.
It has some resistance at 46.00. The rotation to Retail happened in early December-the chart showed you that money came in. Now, investors sit and wait to see if new buyers come in over 46.00
Finally, the Russell 2000 (IWM), is consolidating with a move over 155 sure to bring in buyers to small caps.
So sure, predictions are fun, and experts love to remind you how much research they have done and how well they have picked winners.
I say a family that trades together stays together. And if they differ, follow the money trail of the leaders.
S&P 500 (SPY) New highs. 267.50 pivotal support
Russell 2000 (IWM) Through 155 should go higher
Dow (DIA) Terror in the Dow at 25,000 coming right up
Nasdaq (QQQ) New highs
KRE (Regional Banks) 59.00 pivotal with through 60 good
SMH (Semiconductors) Unconfirmed bullish phase-needs to close over 100.77
IYT (Transportation) 190 support with a move to 200 not out of the question
IBB (Biotechnology) Got to 110, now pivotal with 112 some resistance
XRT (Retail) 46.00 pivotal number.
IYR (Real Estate) 80.00 support.
GLD (Gold Trust) Didn’t fill the gap to 125.41 so taking some profit today made sense.
SLV (Silver) 16.27 the 200-week MA. 15.85 support
USO (US Oil Fund) 12.45 the 2016 high
TAN (Solar Energy) This will probably head to 30 this year
TLT (iShares 20+ Year Treasuries) Unconfirmed Bullish Phase -strange
UUP (Dollar Bull) Worked off oversold conditions today-24.06 best resistance with move back under 24 negative