Naked Modern Family Charts Bare All

Last week we looked at the weekly Modern Family charts with Real Motion to identify momentum trends.

Real Motion will not change dramatically in 1 week, so…

This week I stripped the Modern Family down to line charts to focus on the primary closing levels (black lines), and weekly phases.

Then I drew trends and levels that matter most – the red lines.

 Here are the highlights:

  • The only family member that has any bullish trend or MORE IMPORTANTLY has broken their 2018 high is SMH. (that’s why I’ve entered that trade for MMMA members).
  • 4 of the 6 charts sit at a red line that represents a ‘must hold’ level.

As I explained for MMMA members in the weekly video, this is not bearish unless it breaks. If they break, it gets ugly.

If there is a reversal that follows my ‘close and continue’ pattern, then it’s a bullish opportunity to buy against the low.

  • 3 of the 6 are in wedge patterns that represent compression that will ultimately lead to a volatile move. The direction of this move is not clear in any of them.
  • Unfortunately for the bulls…
    The only bullish weekly phase is SMH.
  • XRT will likely be in a bearish phase shortly, but that’s the only one.

The conclusion:

The bulls can say SMH is leading.

The bears can say the consumer and XRT are failing, and that’s a prelude of what’s to come.

The rest of the Modern family are in their own long-term patterns that need to resolve themselves one way or another.

One week is not likely to make it clear, but the next move that includes agreement by several of the modern family members will be a decisive move that should be followed.

So keep the weekly perspective in mind, and to get a shorter-term view focus on the daily levels provided below.

ETF Levels:

Subscribers: Pivots positive in all. This means that the pivots will be a good place to look for support and an intra-day reversal if the market moves lower on Monday.

S&P 500 (SPY) Support at the pivot area, 187, then Friday’s low, 284.71 and then swing low, 281.72. Big support area is 280 to 277.70 (the 200 DMA). Resistance at 50-DMA and swing high area, 294.

Russell 2000 (IWM) Bull Gap Squeeze! Support at Friday’s low 146.11. Resistance Friday’s high,148.91 and then 150.

Dow (DIA) Support at Friday’s low, 256.87. Swing low support levels are 253.93 and June low of 247. Resistance at 260.70 and then around 264.50.

Nasdaq (QQQ) Support area at 184, then gap fill at 183.60. Resistance at 18186 then 189.70.

KRE (Regional Banks) Support at Firday’s low, 49 then Dec. low, 44. Resistance around 50, then 51.50.

SMH (Semiconductors) Support at area around 108.40, then swing low of 107.41. Resistance at 114.19, then 116.

IYT (Transportation)  Support at swing low area, 175. Resistance at 180 then 186 then 191.

IBB (Biotechnology) August low support at 101.43. Looks interesting if it can close over 107.

XRT (Retail) Rallied but weak. Didn’t clear prior day high. Support at 38? Major resistance around 41.50.