The week of June 3 will be filled with tons of economic data. On Sunday night we get the China Caixin manufacturing PMI with estimates for 50. On Monday we get the US ISM Manufacturing PMI and forecast are for a reading of 52.9. We will also get the German PMI on Monday morning with estimates for 44.3. On Wednesday, we will see the ADPWealth Strength IndexAAPL is Extremely Up and trending Up Private payroll results, with expectations for job creations of 175k. Additionally, Friday will bring us the BLS Job report and estimates are for the creation of 180,000 jobs, and an unemployment rate of 3.7%.
Well, to no surprise China came out and squarely blamed the US on the collapse of the trade talks. In an interview, China noted the bridge is too wide to mend in a month. How will the market react? I don’t know, but it could have been much worse, at least the window is open.
On the Mexico front, the Mexican president has noted they are willing to work with the US to avoid having the tariffs placed –that seems like a piece of good news.
Anyway, with that said plenty is happening this week that could result in the market rebounding sharply or plunging into the abyss. Which way shall it go is anyways guess, but I will do my best to try to lay it out for you.
Let’s just put the fundamental to the side because at times of considerable uncertainty the fundamentals do not matter, besides I layed that our yesterday for you.
Stock Market Outlook for the Week of June 3
S&P 500 (SPY)
The S&P 500 had a bullish reversal pattern form on Friday. It is likely to result in a reversal from this current downtrend this week. However, it may not happen at the start of the week, and even if the index were to fall to 2,737, the pattern would still be intact. Unfortunately, the index has a tremendous amount of resistance around 2,800 and a massive downtrend that has been impossible to break. So if we do rebound this week, I see the S&P only reaching 2,800.
We can see a similar pattern has formed in the NASDAQ, which also suggests a rebound is on the way, but this one goes to around 7,625.
The SMH has already exited its downtrend and has started its reversal pattern, and that could result in the SMH rising to around $106.
Apple has also broken free of its downtrend and wedge, while successfully holding the retesting the break out. It likely results in the stock rising back to $182.
Netflix continues to hold support at $341, and a rebound could send the stock back towards $380.
Facebook, looks as if it has fallen below a descending triangle, and could be set up to decline to $173.
Alibaba looks as if it could still be in trouble and decline towards $141.
JDWealth Strength IndexAAPL is Extremely Up and trending Up (JDWealth Strength IndexAAPL is Extremely Up and trending Up)
Meanwhile, JDWealth Strength IndexAAPL is Extremely Up and trending Up could be on its way towards $24.85 or lower.
It looks like Roku is forming a symmetrical triangle and that could push the stock higher to $102.
Anyway, has it already been six weeks since Acadia finished the enrollment for its Enhance 1 study in schizophrenia? That means we could see results pretty soon. Very excited to see what happens. I think they likely to be good results.
This article first appeared on Mott Capital.
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