Markets Don’t Just Go Up And Down

There has been a transformation in the world since the financial crisis 10 years ago. Events can’t just happen anymore. There is no average or normal. Everything has to be described as either the best or the worst. The biggest or smallest. From where I sit this has led to everyone yelling at each other about their views and not stepping back to see the bigger picture.

Applying this to the financial markets we get the “recession is right around the corner” crowd pitting against the “Dow 30,000” crowd. Which is correct? Neither! Take a look at the chart below of the S&P 500 ETF over the last 2 months. What do you see?

I do not see a crash in this data. Nor do I see a strong move higher. All I see, no matter where on this chart I look, is sideways price action. Not only is price moving sideways, momentum is moving sideways and volatility is moving sideways. Either camp may be proven correct at some point in the future. But for today, here and now, their voices are all just noise. Nothing is happening.

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