Recently, we went to see Marty Stuart and His Fabulous Superlatives in concert.
We can surely use fabulous superlatives to describe how much fun we had.
Similarly, the market engenders some fabulous superlatives.
A superlative is an adjective to describe something of the highest quality or degree.
Expressions like the “best,” “greatest,” “highest”, etc., have become hackneyed phrases to describe the market action.
In fact, add the suffix “est” to just about any word and you can find a parallel to describe the resilient market.
Resilientest? Actually, you can add “est” to a lot of words but not all. Most resilient works the “best.”
In one of Marty Stuart’s songs, “Mirrors Don’t Lie,” he says, “So don’t be lookin’ if you can’t stand to see.”
I choose this song, because I see the resiliency of the market waning.
Therefore, I be lookin’ cause I can stand to see.
We should all be lookin’-cause nothing lasts forever.
What are the “most” troubling signs to watch for?
My number one concern is the rising rates and falling dollar. This isn’t news if you read my Daily. I’ve been concerned for months.
Secondly, the tax cuts in an economy that is overheated-have you heard that the Atlanta Fed thinks first quarter GDP will be 5.1%?
Then there’s the rising debt. Add to that, wages that have barely budged as well as the low level of money employers are spending on benefits for workers.
My next major concern? The falling dollar and rising global demand could spark inflation. That will put Chair Powell in a tough if not the-inject superlative-toughest spot.
Stagflation-really crappy situation for the Fed should it occur.
Technically I have some issues. For starters, the topping reversal pattern in the indices and gaps that were left from the highs.
The break of the floor trader pivot S1 in SPY and others after 20 days of closing above it.
Semiconductors (SMH) closing below 106 today. And, Transportation (IYT) and the confirmed breakdown of a bear flag that measures the move down to around 190.00.
So, yes, this has been the “greatest, most bullish, hugest and fabulous-est” market for over a year.
Let’s hope for more resilience, but be prepared should the market go from the fabulous superlative the “greatest” to the frightening superlative the “nastiest.”
S&P 500 (SPY) Inside day. That makes the range break of 283.30-280.68 one to follow
Russell 2000 (IWM) 158.45 is resistance and the place to clear with 154 some support
Dow (DIA) 264.12 the place to clear. Under 259.75 will bring more sellers
Nasdaq (QQQ) 170 the place to clear. Under 167.40 some trouble.