Major Pairs Update
4 September 2018/9:19 p.m. ET
$-Index – Lower in minor [c] of B toward 93.00
USD/JPY – Lower in minor (c) of [c] toward 107.97
EUR/USD – Looking for a five-wave rally toward 1.1963.
GBP/USD – Minor correction complete; looking for a rally toward 1.3162-89.
USD/CAD – A trade deal would likely trigger another wave down toward 1.2700.
AUD/USD – Still grinding lower; target now toward 0.7130; watching for key day reversal.
Dollar Index [last 95.40]: Still working on the premise an expanding flat pattern’ i.e. [a]-[b]-[c] is still in play. The rally to resistance at 95.68 and reversal today, adds confidence minor Wave (c) of [c] may be underway. I am looking for the dollar index to move back toward 93.00 to complete larger Wave B; setting the stage for a sharp dollar rally to 99-100 level.
Support: 94.68 Resistance: 94.73
USD/JPY Daily: [last 111.42]: If the dollar index view is correct, we should finally see the
break in $-yen we have been patiently waiting for. But, a break above 111.82 means this view (showing a minor five -wave pattern for Wave (c) of [c] is negated.
Support: 111.00 Resistance: 112.14
EUR/USD 240-min [last 1.1585]: A nice spike low (240-min bar key reversal) into our 1.1530 target. Now looking for a five-wave rally in Wave (C) with scope to 1.1963; i.e. Wave (C) = (A). Watching for a test of the 1.1530 low for an opportunity to add long.
Support: 1.1530 Resistance: 1.16.28
GBP/USD 240-min [last 1.2853]: The retracement in Wave [b] represented 61.8% of Wave
[a]…assuming Wave [b] is complete, a zig-zag extension level for [c] comes in at 1.3189—very close to the 61.8% retrace target measured from Wave (B) high at 1.3471. So, confluence on our extension target. But the political risk here is high. If May’s government crumbles, the pound will likely take a hit.
Support: 1.2797 Resistance: 1.3162-1.3189
USD/CAD Daily [last 1.2902]: $-CAD had been hit on the fact a trade deal hasn’t yet
materialized yet between Canada and the US. A deal would likely push $-CAD sharply lower
adding validity to this view showing a minor Wave [b] complete at 1.3207, or near completion, on an extended flat pattern (a)-(b)-(c). Still expecting one more spike lower here (1.2705 favored but scope for 1.2522 test) before a sharp and extended rally in the pair.
Support: 1.2883 Resistance: 1.3289
AUD/USD Daily [last 0.7181]: Now looking for a bottom in Wave [b] near 0.7130 scope
calculated (minor Wave (a) equals (c)); but a key day reversal here might confirm dollar index view; measuring up for Wave [c], expanded flat completion, comes in at 0.7508.
Support: 0.7152 Resistance: 0.7362-81