Is It Look Out Below For Bunge?

It looks like another strong open for U.S. stock index futures as traders gear up for an action-packed November, with an upcoming G-20 summit, midterm elections, the latest jobs report and a Fed meeting on monetary policy. U.S. stocks rebounded strongly for a second day on Wednesday, as investors scooped up beaten-down technology and internet favorites as strong corporate results lifted sentiment.

*Source:  Seeking Alpha

Let’s consider Bunge Ltd. today (Ticker: BG)

The VantagePoint platform recently indicated downside momentum after a big miss on earnings.

Using the predictive indicators embedded within the VantagePoint platform and its predictive AI technology, we will point out three significant things. We have a bearish crossover indicated by the blue predictive indicator line crossing below the black simple moving average on October 31st.  We can combine that with the VantagePoint propriety neural index indicator moving from the GREEN to the RED position on that same day.  This indicator measures strength and weakness for a 48-hour period, in this case, weakness.  The move to the RED position further makes the case for a potentially bearish scenario. We also have the predicted high and low below yesterday’s actual high and low indicating further weakness.  I want to play the VP bearish indication.

Strategy Discussion

If you are strictly a stock trader, simply selling BG in the $63.00 area is a prudent move.  You are anticipating a move to the downside.  It is always a good idea to enter a buy-stop order to mitigate potential losses.  Placing that buy-stop in the $65.50 area will achieve that goal.

For active traders with a shorter investment time horizon, you can consider a setup utilizing options. Given the market conditions outlined above, taking an active, premium debit approach may be the best path to success.

Because of the reasons given above, the purchase of a debit put spread may be one way to approach this situation.  You will first want to calculate your target strike.  In order to do this, you will need three pieces of data:  current price, expiration date and the implied volatility associated with that expiration date.  For BG, that yields a targeted strike of ~$55.00.  You may want to consider the BG December 21st regular monthly expiration 55/60 put spread, buying it for $1.25.  The most you can lose is the premium paid and the most you can gain is the width of the wider spread less any premium paid.  Max risk = $1.25 and max reward = $3.75.  This means that you are getting odds of 3.00:1.

Given the trading and market environment outlined above, a trader must evaluate whether this reward/risk ratio is appropriate for his/her risk tolerance.